Episode 81: Inside Election Administration w/ Nathaniel Rakich of Votebeat

Before we bring in Nathaniel and get to our big stories of the day, what are a few headlines that people should not miss? Nathan, kick us off here.

So last week, we made a large batch of race rating changes, all in favor of Democrats.

On the Senate side, we moved Georgia and North Carolina to lean Democratic.

We moved Michigan out of toss-up to tilt Democratic.

Alaska went to toss-up.

And Texas, one step closer to toss-up from lean Republican to tilt Republican.

On the House side, we made 11 changes, including shifting Iowa Republicans Marionette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn from toss-up to tilt Democratic, making them underdogs in their races.

We also moved three gubernatorial races.

But just go to our website, our new website, InsideElections.com, for the full breakdown.

We're also starting to see some more concrete signs that the House battleground is shifting.

A Democratic Super PAC, House Majority PAC, or HMP, began trimming its TV reservations in California's 48th District, which is a Democratic pickup opportunity, and Nebraska's 2nd District, held by retiring Congressman Don Bacon, who's a Republican.

The main Republican super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, also trimmed its buy in Nebraska's second, signaling that Bacon's Omaha-based seat may be a lost cause for Republicans this cycle.

Adding insult to injury, the news of the CLF retreat in Omaha came as Donald Trump was literally in Nebraska campaigning for Republicans.

in the Cornhusker state as they face difficult headwinds up and down the ballot in the Senate race and in these House races.

And Republicans are making some changes as well.

Senate Republicans' top super PAC is retreating in North Carolina.

The Senate Leadership Fund has canceled its remaining ads there, where former RNC Chairman Michael Watley has trailed former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in polling for months.

SLF is moving the money to Kansas, where Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is facing a tougher-than-expected race from Democrat Adam Hamilton.

And stay tuned for a potential rating change on that race, as that race is just a clear example of what we think might happen early in the cycle and how a state might behave.

Matters less right before the election.

It's about what is happening, and that race continues to be very close, and the Republican spending is evidence of that.

We are rapidly approaching November's midterm elections.

Voters are already casting ballots and we're very much deep into the election season already.

So Nathan, walk us through what we think we're looking at in the House and Senate battlegrounds.

Well, with just about a month to go before Election Day, we've adjusted our overall projections in favor of Democrats.