Adam Hamilton

What's next?

Buy, sell, or hold? Roger Marshall will beat Adam Hamilton.

Today, on October 16th, I'm going to buy that.

I am.

I'm not going to sit here and say it's going to be a blowout.

But I'm going to buy that Roger Marshall ultimately gets it done against Adam Hamilton.

It might be too close for comfort, but he will win.

He has the president coming in on Monday.

It's a plus nine or something Democratic state.

Adam Hamilton is running against the vibes of his state.

If you have these good candidates, the broader trends can kind of recede, but when it's generic candidates, anti-incumbency ... is powerful force, but anti-Trump is the most powerful force.

And for all I know, given that I, I only got about an hour sleep last night, I could've been speaking entirely in Aramaic just now.

We have also, Mike, you mentioned Montana earlier, seems like a real long shot, but there's, there are interesting dynamics in that race.

We have, in the past two weeks, talked about Nebraska, and the fact that the president felt the need to go there was, was brought there, I think, by local Republicans.

Kansas seems to be, however improbably, a potentially competitive race, Adam Hamilton against incumbent Republican Roger Marshall.

And there's one race we haven't really talked much about, and I wanna get your thoughts on this one, and that is South Carolina.

And Alaska's Mary Peltola outraised Dan Sullivan nearly six to one.

And in Kansas, Adam Hamilton brought in $10 million while Roger Marshall didn't even raise one.

Important to note, Republicans still have the advantage when it comes to super PAC money, but if grassroots fundraising is a sign of enthusiasm, then it is yet another sign of Democratic momentum.

With control of Congress on the line, let's bring in MSNOW senior White House reporter Vaughan Hillyard.

Sure.

And so the thing that, you know, I think what this election i- in, in 2026 could show us is that it, it may well put to bed the notion that, you know, there are no Republicans who will vote for Democrats, okay? So if a, if a Talarico wins in Texas, if, uh, Peltola wins in Alaska, as if Turek wins, if Hamilton wins, or if some group of these people win, they don't-

Yeah

... all have to win.

And I think this big wave-

Look-

You know, people don't think it's possible, but if Talarico and, or Peltola or Turek or Hamilton win-

Yeah

Next, we had Crystal Ball and Split Ticket shift the Kansas Senate race from leaning Republican to a toss-up, which is really interesting.

Um, notably, the Democrat Adam Hamilton hasn't trailed in polls lately, but there are some fundamentals in play.

Mark, I'm curious what your initial takeaways were from the Kansas Senate shift and where you see that moving in the next few days.

Yeah, it felt like Kansas was something where all the, you know, polling aggregators and prog- prognosticators, like, had been hesitant to move it 'cause it just, it, it seems like, you know, you're worried that it ends up being a Republican plus eight, plus nine victory, but they had no choice.

And, and I'll make the case too, I think we've talked about this a lot, Olivia, this is a candidate quality discussion again.

Roger Marshall, not a great candidate.

Adam Hamilton, an excellent candidate.

Potentially the best candidate running this cycle on the Democratic side, um, other than maybe Ossoff.

KCUR's Sam Zeff has more.

In a social media video, Democrat Adam Hamilton said he would fight in the Senate for limits on who can see Flock data and how long it's stored.

Flock shouldn't receive taxpayer support without serious legal reforms that protect our Fourth Amendment rights.

Hamilton's campaign told KCUR he's heard from many Kansans about their concerns over Flock data.

Mike Rogers, 10 million.

Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Max, 9.9 million.

Roger Marshall, $866,000.

I mean, I don't know, the, the...

That makes a Republican pickup increasingly unlikely.

In Kansas, where Republican incumbent Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, is competitive, but still leans Republican in my assessment.

Put all of this together and Democrats have a plausible path to control.

North Carolina and Georgia are looking increasingly favorable for Democrats, while Alaska, Texas, Ohio, and Iowa provide additional opportunities for them.