NFL Week 7 PLAYER PROPS - Picks and Bets

Tell us.

The beautiful part about props is what happened last week doesn't matter heading into this week.

One subject that I want to discuss with you guys is context.

Context really matters when it comes to props.

Let me give you an example here.

The Lions playing the Packers, the highest projected total on this week's slate.

Looks like a potential gold mine for player props.

The Packers, they have a extremely condensed target distribution.

Christian Watson, Matthew Golden have both been excellent in their own right.

Meanwhile, the Lions' defense has been absolutely atrocious.

Their pass defense specifically seems like a slam dunk, no-brainer spot to back Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.

Not so fast, however.

If we look a little bit under the hood, as I like to say, the Lions early in the season were double-teaming at one of the lowest rates ever In the NFL, as a result, the guys who were the wide receiver ones that they were facing were popping off versus them.

There has been a shift in philosophy.

When the Lions played the Cardinals prior to their bye week, they double teamed Michael Wilson at a high rate.

As a result, they slowed him down significantly.

Now they have the bye week to prepare for Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, neither of whom have been double teamed even at an above average rate this season, despite them both having very strong years.

Is it a foregone conclusion that the Lions are going to shut these guys down? No.

However, I do think that there's a very good chance that they see a higher double team rate this than they've seen this season.

And it's not the slam dunk spot that it appears on paper.

And that includes the matchup for Jordan Love.

And that is why context matters.

And there you have it.

Professor Propstar has laid it out.

And by the way, thank you for being my advisor on this week's show and approving a couple of my plays.