CJ Stroud

But when you start to see injuries or you start to see somebody is not playing at the level they played last year, that's when it starts to become concerning.

Just go back to C.J. Stroud.

I think we penciled him in after that first year where you go, "I can rely on him.

Like, I know he's gonna be great." Now, the only thing that stands in between the expectations of a Super Bowl and maybe just making the playoffs is C.J.

Paul?

Most interesting, Bills-Texans because of C.J. Stroud.

He's gotta clean it up fast.

Least interesting, I don't think I can watch Dolphins-Raiders.

And when you're at the quarterback position, rookie season looks beautiful.

Same way with C.J. Stroud.

Then your next year it's like, okay, all right, bet, it's looking good.

And then he's had two great seasons, and then he gets to the playoffs.

In the backfield, right, it seems like it's gonna be a two-headed or two-man committee with David Montgomery and, uh, Woody Marks there.

And the big elephant in the room is how does C.J. Stroud respond after what he did against-

Right

... your New England Patriots, right? But at least the one thing I do know-

Exactly.

Recency bias.

What we saw last was C.J. Stroud in New England.

Yeah, and I think that's what's really driving this line of the, the Texans catching points here at, uh, with plus one and a half.

That's been, like, a running theme for three years, where they kinda just switch up their offensive line every year, they switch up their run game every year, and they're like, "All right, this year we're gonna get it right," and it just hasn't happened.

I mean, when you look at it, for three years under C.J. Stroud, they really haven't had an above average offense statistically, uh, because their offensive line is always one of the worst in the NFL.

Even going into this year, if you look at someone like Brandon Thorn, um, you know, the offensive line guru who studies this stuff more than anybody, I think he's got them 27th in the NFL-

Mm

You know, I would say he was an above av- slightly above average quarterback, and then he has the playoff game against the Patriots where he's horrendous.

And now, you know, he's got this contract situation, like he's playing to be a 60-plus million dollar quarterback, but I think anyone who watched him last year and the year before would be like, "Are you crazy? You can't give him that kind of money." So yeah, he has kind of a lot at stake this year.

Just when you're looking at league-wide narratives, C.J. Stroud's got a lot on the line.

And you look at them schematically, there's nothing really that stands out, you know? It's like they use play action at a league average rate, they throw deep at a league average rate, they pass the ball at a league average rate.

Houston beat Buffalo on a Thursday night last year with Davis Mills at quarterback.

Everybody telling Stroud how bad he's been the postseason game.

You can't win a Super Bowl with C.J. Stroud.

I think Houston will be the overreaction team of week one.

They will beat Buffalo.

And it's just, why are you doing it? And I feel like that was the most surprising of...

That was something that I saw a lot of from C.J. Stroud, like when he was under a ton of pressure in the playoffs, right? And I know Drake May did not have the best postseason run, got sacked a lot, what have you, and obviously the Super Bowl was not bad.

But the decision-making, especially at the end, I just did not expect so many bad decisions from Drake May in his first game.

He's still a young quarterback, all that great stuff, but I thought that that... point would have been a little bit more polished.

Okay, it's not a big body of work there, but it was significant for them.

I think that up front, combined with what they've done at tight end with Foster Morrow coming in, drafting Marlon Klein in the second round, and David Montgomery in the backfield, all that... will help them run the ball better, and that means a better offensive product overall and better news for C.J. Stroud as he looks for his receivers, whoever's catching the football.

How has David Montgomery acclimated?

Man, he's been fun because the moment he was signed, he's got this nastiness about him.

Guy's a good player.

He should fit in.

Got to talk about your quarterback, C.J. Stroud.

A lot of conversation about him this offseason.

Have we entered a new era, Eric, where defense is back and you can win and you can win it all with a great defense? Because I do think we went through, I don't know, 15, 20 year period where defense...

great offense was trumping great defense and yet the last two years the Eagles dominated with defense obviously through their playoff run in that Super Bowl game especially against the Chiefs and then last year really I mean Seattle New England got there with its defense in the postseason Seattle got there led by its defense we saw you know Houston was really close to making it, if they just punted it 10 times instead of letting C.J. Stroud drop back, they probably would have been there.

Is it a new kind of, have we entered a new era here where defense is ahead of offense?

I'm glad you brought up Houston too because they're the team that I think could help prove this theory right or help push it forward in terms of hey maybe you know everything is cyclical in the NFL right offenses go big defenses go small you know whatever everything is an adjustment to what the other side of the ball is doing and there's always these trends that happen whether they're two-year trends five-year trends decade-long whatever but they exist and they do happen right and We've seen the run game kind of cycle back into the NFL when passing was all the rage.

So I don't know that we'll ever have a full reversion back to that.

But Seattle proved they can win with that formula.

I think the Texans, if C.J. Stroud, like you said... to just make that one incremental jump to being more reliable and more of the player we saw as a rookie with that defense and what they have, I don't see how they couldn't be a Super Bowl contender.

So yeah, that would prove that theory is very legit.