5: Our First 2028 Democratic Primary Draft!

Last week, Flipper gave Democrats a 73% chance of winning the Senate and a 93% chance of winning the House, and pretty much the forecast is holding steady.

Yeah, we haven't even entered in another series of polls that were pretty favorable for Democrats overnight.

There's a Suffolk poll showing, um, Josh Turek up by four points in Iowa.

There are YouGov polls showing Democrats winning everywhere, although Michigan was close in that one, which might be thematic for the conversation we're gonna have.

Um, but no, at this point, I think you would say polls show Democrats winning the Senate if an election were held today, right? Um, and there are kind of two ways that that could go wrong, right? One is that we still have a month to go, and the other is that, uh, is that polls can be wrong.

And they don't have to be that wrong for Republicans to salvage the Senate.

The House is a whole different story.

That would require a big time polling fuckup.

Um, but yeah, this surge since Labor Day, where it kind of went from toss-up to leaning D in the Senate, maybe even a strong lean, um, that, that surge has not receded yet anyway.

Galen, barring any October surprises, is it kind of Dems have reached a ceiling, Republicans have reached a floor? Like, what's...

Could anything happen?

Predicting ceilings and floors is always tricky territory in our industry, but I can describe what has happened.

Yeah.

I think the post Labor Day likely voter model switch is fully priced in at this point.

We've been getting lots of pollsters' first polls post Labor Day over the past month that have shown significant gains for Democrats.

It's brought up the generic ballot lead for Democrats to nine percentage points.

We are seeing, as Nate mentioned, Democrats leading across the different Senate battleground states.

So I think that is priced in.

I don't think we're gonna see that much more upward movement based on a likely voter model or something like that.

But when it comes to Republicans' floor, and, and I, I wouldn't even necessarily say that's Democrats' ceiling, the remaining movement is likely amongst undecided voters.

And when you look in a lot of these polls, even if, where the Democrats are leading, they're not above 50%.

In some states they are, like North Carolina, Georgia, places like that.

But in Iowa, Alaska, even-

Yeah

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