Nate Silver

So Republicans on the Senate side have been wanting that.

On the House side, we should mention, I think Nate Silver's model has Democrats with an 83% chance to win back the House, but that also means, according to his model, that Republicans still have, like, a 15, 17% chance to keep the House.

And I kind of think that is the, the main theme of the midterm convention.

You tell me.

But i- in, in my opinion, this is gonna be a close contest all over the country, but it certainly is not a guarantee that Democrats are gonna take the Senate, which I think, uh, Mr.

Silver is saying that there's a good chance they take the Senate or th- they come close.

I don't agree with Mr.

Silver.

I don't agree with Nate Silver's evaluation of pollsters either, or the way he does things, and that's all in my book, by the way, [laughs] The Honoring of Ignorance.

He- so Nate will really enjoy this.

It's a good thing I'm retiring after this, and don't say I'm not, Hannity.

End quote.

Nate Silver is very correct here.

I do not expect a plateau based on everything I am hearing from both labs, and Andrew is largely correct as well.

Quote.

Nate Silver.

I don't think we get to GPT-7 without either a plateau in the technology or something fairly seismic happening.

Seismic includes many subcategories, not all of them bad.

The new name of the new OpenAI Dean Ball blog is Intelligence Age.

Did the early EAs slash rationalists obsessed with AI safety make the situation better or worse, and how to divide up the credit among them? It's genuinely hard to tell, even now.

Nate Silver is very correct here.

I do not expect a plateau based on everything I am hearing from both labs, and Andrew is largely correct as well.

Nate Silver I don't think we get to GPT-7 without either a plateau in the technology or something fairly seismic happening.

Seismic includes many subcategories, not all of them bad.

But the present course of rapid AI advancements while society is approximately the same is running on fumes.

The new name of the new OpenAI Dean Ball blog is Intelligence Age.

Good choice.

End quote.

Nate Silver is very correct here, I do not expect a plateau based on everything I am hearing from both labs, and Andrew is largely correct as well.

Quote.

Nate Silver.

I don't think we get to GPT-7 without either a plateau in the technology or something fairly seismic happening.

Seismic includes many subcategories, not all of them bad.

The new name of the new OpenAI Dean Ball blog is Intelligence Age.

Good choice.

And on top of that, you had James Comey saying that the New York FBI was forcing him to reopen the Hillary Clinton email scandal, and he sends a letter to Congress, the magazine's Congress leaked the letter, and that creates an October surprise from patriarchy hell, where suddenly the New York FBI office is forcing this email investigation to go back open right on the eve of the vote.

And Nate Silver does an analysis later on saying that this Comey letter, this October surprise of reopening Hillary Clinton's email scandal forced by New York FBI was a big, big trigger, a big factor in helping tip the vote to Trump in the final days of the 2016 election.

Everything I just mentioned, you know, like Giuliani cackling, Manafort making that prediction, the Russians, as we'll find out later, being in all 50 states, hacking every single voting system, reality winner, a contractor for the NSA, risking her very freedom and career to provide the inept intercept with clear proof that the Russians were all up in our voting systems.

All of this combined, right? Why am I telling you all about this? Because in addition to all of this, the Russians also had a major, major, major, major purchased official, golden handcuffed official inside our own FBI in New York where it mattered, in New York where all of this went down and tipping the scales in his final days.

Sure.

Nate Silver, who we all know and love and are big fans of, chimed in and he said, I don't think we get to GPT-7 without either a plateau in the technology or something fairly seismic happening.

Seismic includes many subcategories, not all of them bad.

and here's the crucial thing that I agree with, but the present course of rapid AI advancements while society is basically the same is running on fumes.

we'll take a look at the average of the two.

So you get poll-based models, right? Like that were made famous by Nate Silver.

These include the fundamentals.

A 53% chance you average all these different models together.