26 Days Out: Why Republicans Might Be Ready to Dump Ken Paxton

I mean, it's not.

Here's the thing.

I actually did TV last night on News Nation with Leland Vitter, and his conceit was, what if the polls are wrong? And I was like, I mean, that is always a possibility, number one.

And, you know, I think during the primary season, what we saw was the polls were not perfect, right? Abdul El-Sayed was supposed to win by 25.

He won by one.

Francesca Hong in Wisconsin was supposed to win by 25.

She lost.

So, yes.

Here's what I would say, Matt.

I think the...

The bulk of the polling across the country in individual races, as well as nationally, all is pointing in one direction.

Now, could all of that be wrong in the in this way that Trump aligned voters are simply not participating in polling? Yes, Donald Trump overperformed his polling expected averages in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Obviously, he won two of those and lost one.

But in 2020, he did better than people thought he was going to.

He didn't do well enough to win.

So is that possible? Yes, it is possible.

No question.

But there are so many other data points out there that make me think that it's not just the polling.

I'll Special elections since Donald Trump became president again and starting in 2025 have all pointed toward significant Democratic overperformance, right? Whether it's a state House race, a state Senate race, a U.S.

House race, that doesn't mean Democrats won everything, but they overperformed what Kamala Harris did.

So that's point one.

Point two.

And I'll give a shout out to my friend John Kavulian, who is a pollster who has gathered all this information.

You can follow Matt Wynn with JMC on Twitter.

It's a great follow.

I mean, it's not.

Here's the thing.

I actually did TV last night on News Nation with Leland Vitter, and his conceit was, what if the polls are wrong? And I was like, I mean, that is always a possibility, number one.

And, you know, I think during the primary season, what we saw was the polls were not perfect, right? Abdul El-Sayed was supposed to win by 25.

He won by one.

Francesca Hong in Wisconsin was supposed to win by 25.

She lost.

So, yes.

Here's what I would say, Matt.

I think the...

The bulk of the polling across the country in individual races, as well as nationally, all is pointing in one direction.

Now, could all of that be wrong in the in this way that Trump aligned voters are simply not participating in polling? Yes, Donald Trump overperformed his polling expected averages in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Obviously, he won two of those and lost one.

But in 2020, he did better than people thought he was going to.

He didn't do well enough to win.

So is that possible? Yes, it is possible.

No question.

But there are so many other data points out there that make me think that it's not just the polling.

I'll Special elections since Donald Trump became president again and starting in 2025 have all pointed toward significant Democratic overperformance, right? Whether it's a state House race, a state Senate race, a U.S.

House race, that doesn't mean Democrats won everything, but they overperformed what Kamala Harris did.

So that's point one.

Point two.

And I'll give a shout out to my friend John Kavulian, who is a pollster who has gathered all this information.

You can follow Matt Wynn with JMC on Twitter.

It's a great follow.