55 - AI Hype Versus Real Value with Artur Kiulian

Yeah, it's really interesting kind of that using AI and emerging tech in crisis government and certain initiatives.

You just talked about working with NVIDIA for donating supercomputers to the effort.

How do you actually make that case to a company focused on such a booming commercial market? That's quite a feat.

Well, it was an impossible thing, right? Highly improbable event.

And sometimes I joke to people that I'm in the business of low probability events.

And preparing for those is one thing, but actually designing those to happen is even harder.

So the way I think about this is that everything is possible.

given certain constraints and resources.

So your job as a decision maker is just to paint the outcome, the end outcome where you want to be, paint the starting point, the current state, and use technology to help you navigate all that complexity, how to actually end up in that successful outcome.

And it's not about predicting the future because a lot of people think that I'm in the business of predicting the future because of the current work that I'm doing.

But essentially, I'm in the business of action, you know, being able to see and model which futures we're arriving at and how to act on it so you can still get to the outcome that you're, you know, planning to.

So, you know, my current work, you know, I'm CEO and founder of Principle.

And what we do is basically scenario planning and simulations to help businesses get to their desired outcomes.

And once again, a lot of people think that I'm selling a crystal ball, telling them, oh, you know, something will happen and that's why you should prepare for it.

And it's not what I'm selling at all.

Which is counterintuitive because a lot of companies in Silicon Valley are actively selling, you know, crystal balls and prediction of market events.

The whole prediction market thing is booming like crazy.

You know, the whole gambling on the future, it's like all over the place.

So it's natural to feel pressured to buy crystal balls.

But the way I talk about this is that the key capability for the modern enterprise or even human decision makers is being aware of the environment, understanding what is happening, and how it helps you or prevents you from getting to your outcomes.

And this is where technology is magically capable of doing it.

Because all of a sudden you can simulate thousands of pluralities of the future.

And you don't sample it for the highest probability event so you can predict the outcome.

You're actually very interested in highly improbable events.

Because if you think about it, invasion of Ukraine was a highly improbable event.

Yeah, it's really interesting kind of that using AI and emerging tech in crisis government and certain initiatives.

You just talked about working with NVIDIA for donating supercomputers to the effort.

How do you actually make that case to a company focused on such a booming commercial market? That's quite a feat.

Well, it was an impossible thing, right? Highly improbable event.

And sometimes I joke to people that I'm in the business of low probability events.

And preparing for those is one thing, but actually designing those to happen is even harder.

So the way I think about this is that everything is possible.

given certain constraints and resources.

So your job as a decision maker is just to paint the outcome, the end outcome where you want to be, paint the starting point, the current state, and use technology to help you navigate all that complexity, how to actually end up in that successful outcome.

And it's not about predicting the future because a lot of people think that I'm in the business of predicting the future because of the current work that I'm doing.

But essentially, I'm in the business of action, you know, being able to see and model which futures we're arriving at and how to act on it so you can still get to the outcome that you're, you know, planning to.

So, you know, my current work, you know, I'm CEO and founder of Principle.

And what we do is basically scenario planning and simulations to help businesses get to their desired outcomes.

And once again, a lot of people think that I'm selling a crystal ball, telling them, oh, you know, something will happen and that's why you should prepare for it.

And it's not what I'm selling at all.

Which is counterintuitive because a lot of companies in Silicon Valley are actively selling, you know, crystal balls and prediction of market events.

The whole prediction market thing is booming like crazy.

You know, the whole gambling on the future, it's like all over the place.

So it's natural to feel pressured to buy crystal balls.

But the way I talk about this is that the key capability for the modern enterprise or even human decision makers is being aware of the environment, understanding what is happening, and how it helps you or prevents you from getting to your outcomes.

And this is where technology is magically capable of doing it.

Because all of a sudden you can simulate thousands of pluralities of the future.

And you don't sample it for the highest probability event so you can predict the outcome.

You're actually very interested in highly improbable events.

Because if you think about it, invasion of Ukraine was a highly improbable event.