Cooler Heads Are Not Prevailing

Yeah, and I mean, that's also a way, a way for me to back into the question of, 'cause we've, I mean, and rightfully so, he controls a lot of things right now, but, you know, the midterms are coming, and I'm assuming, and I think it's a pretty safe assumption, but we'll see.

I've assumed things before, and they've blown up in my face.

But I think the Democrats are going to take the House, uh, and I think they have a fighting chance at the Senate too.

All of which is to say, and I think inflation is gonna go up from here, especially with the Strait of Hormuz closed.

So, you know, Donald Trump is a lame duck president.

He's gonna lose at least one house, maybe both houses.

He's gonna have the same economic issues that were crippling Biden are gonna be crippling him.

He's gonna have to be up there making the case to the American people that the economy is great when Americans are spending more money for things.

Um, which the, the deeper question then is, well, okay, if you get, you know, a moderate Republican president, uh, let's, let's call him President Rubio, or if you get even, like, somebody from the left, um, maybe it's, uh, that Senator Ossoff as the dark horse candidate down there in Georgia, or maybe he- heck, let's even throw out an AOC.

Like, does one of those types of leaders come into office to replace Trump and on day one say, "Enough of this meshugas.

Like, let's fix this with Canada.

This is insanity.

This was something from the old administration"? Or do you think that this has set the United States on a path ...

towards friction with Canada and Mexico in a way that really doesn't matter what the personalities are.

The things have fundamentally changed in the, in the structure.

Does that question make sense?

Yeah.

No, the question makes sense.

I mean, I'd offer, you know, I'll unpack what might happen in Canada and Mexico.

I, you know, I, I think...

But before unpacking Canada and Mexico, sort of what do we think the next president might do on trade? As you say, if it's more of a-

Yeah

... you know, sort of more traditional Republican, uh, or if it is a, a Democrat.

Look, I, I think given voter concern about inflation, given all the polling that shows the tariffs are unpopular, I think the next president would be, um, will almost certainly be in a position to want to reduce US tariffs significantly.

Now, I don't think that necessarily means, in kind of my base case scenario, that doesn't mean going back to pre-Trump trade, uh, tariffs.

Yeah, and I mean, that's also a way, a way for me to back into the question of, 'cause we've, I mean, and rightfully so, he controls a lot of things right now, but, you know, the midterms are coming, and I'm assuming, and I think it's a pretty safe assumption, but we'll see.

I've assumed things before, and they've blown up in my face.

But I think the Democrats are going to take the House, uh, and I think they have a fighting chance at the Senate too.

All of which is to say, and I think inflation is gonna go up from here, especially with the Strait of Hormuz closed.

So, you know, Donald Trump is a lame duck president.

He's gonna lose at least one house, maybe both houses.

He's gonna have the same economic issues that were crippling Biden are gonna be crippling him.

He's gonna have to be up there making the case to the American people that the economy is great when Americans are spending more money for things.

Um, which the, the deeper question then is, well, okay, if you get, you know, a moderate Republican president, uh, let's, let's call him President Rubio, or if you get even, like, somebody from the left, um, maybe it's, uh, that Senator Ossoff as the dark horse candidate down there in Georgia, or maybe he- heck, let's even throw out an AOC.

Like, does one of those types of leaders come into office to replace Trump and on day one say, "Enough of this meshugas.

Like, let's fix this with Canada.

This is insanity.

This was something from the old administration"? Or do you think that this has set the United States on a path ...

towards friction with Canada and Mexico in a way that really doesn't matter what the personalities are.

The things have fundamentally changed in the, in the structure.

Does that question make sense?

Yeah.

No, the question makes sense.

I mean, I'd offer, you know, I'll unpack what might happen in Canada and Mexico.

I, you know, I, I think...

But before unpacking Canada and Mexico, sort of what do we think the next president might do on trade? As you say, if it's more of a-

Yeah

... you know, sort of more traditional Republican, uh, or if it is a, a Democrat.

Look, I, I think given voter concern about inflation, given all the polling that shows the tariffs are unpopular, I think the next president would be, um, will almost certainly be in a position to want to reduce US tariffs significantly.

Now, I don't think that necessarily means, in kind of my base case scenario, that doesn't mean going back to pre-Trump trade, uh, tariffs.