Republicans Are Playing DEFENSE in States Trump Won Big | Tom Bevan

**Guest** Tom Bevan, Co-Founder and President, RealClearPolitics **Guest Bio** Tom Bevan is the co-founder of RealClearPolitics, home of the polling averages cited across American politics. He started the site in 2000 with John McIntyre and is now its president. A Princeton graduate, Bevan co-hosts RCP’s daily radio show on SiriusXM with Washington bureau chief Carl Cannon, and the two co-wrote a pair of e-books on the 2012 election. He travels the country giving speeches on the election landscape. **Show Summary** “Republicans are playing defense in a lot of these states,” says Tom Bevan. In this episode of *State of Gold*, host Jon Slavet sits down with the RealClearPolitics co-founder to size up the 2026 midterms, from the fight for the Senate to the gas prices weighing on Republican voters. Bevan calls the Senate a real toss-up. He points to President Trump’s job approval at 38.8% in the RCP average and a generic ballot where Democrats lead by about eight and a half points, and says to follow where the time and money are going. Trump’s trips to Texas, Ohio and Montana are about turning out the base, because “midterm elections are base elections,” though Susan Collins and Mike Rogers would rather keep their distance. Collins never led a poll in 2020, he notes, and still won by eight points. He says gas prices have the tightest link to how voters feel about the economy because it is “a very tangible thing that everybody across this country feels in a very real way when they go to the pump.” The conversation moves to Texas, where he calls the Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico “a crazy race.” On polling, Bevan admits there have been big misses. Still, he says of the averages, “there’s literally nothing better.” He closes on election confidence, with a two-day national voting holiday he and Carl Cannon have proposed, and says ballot harvesting “erodes” trust and “should be done away with.” **Chapters** 00:00 – Cold Open: Other Countries Count Ballots Faster Than California 00:16 – Welcome: RealClearPolitics Co-Founder Tom Bevan on the Midterms 00:29 – Senate Toss-Up: Trump at 38.8% and Democrats Up 8.5 Points 02:11 – Follow the Money: Why Republicans Are Spending in Red States 04:12 – Trump on the Trail: Do Red-State Candidates Want Him There? 06:04 – Senate Betting: Susan Collins, Kansas and a Weird Election Cycle 09:10 – Gas Prices: The Pump Problem Dragging Down Republicans 12:00 – Latino Voters: Trump’s 2024 Gains Are Slipping Back 13:59 – Texas Senate: Talarico, Paxton and What Went Wrong for Cornyn 17:33 – Polling Defense: Are the Polls Rigged? Tom Bevan Answers 20:39 – Election Trust: Voting Holiday, California and Ballot Harvesting **Connect with Tom Bevan** - X: https://x.com/TomBevanRCP - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-bevan-8152353a - RealClearPolitics, YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@realclearpolitics4074 Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcast **Connect with State of Gold** - X: https://x.com/realjonslavet - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=en - Website: www.stateofgold.com