So it's sort of like this weird election cycle, right?

It is.

It's definitely that I think.

And part of this is like, you know, it's candidate quality.

Right.

Michelle Telfoy is a great candidate.

And Peggy Flanagan is not a very good candidate.

And so it's like, it's almost impossible to think you can get there unless it's just human bias, you know?

So it's sort of like this weird election cycle, right?

It is.

It's definitely that I think.

And part of this is like, you know, it's candidate quality.

Right.

Michelle Tafoya is a great candidate.

And Peggy Flanagan is not a very good candidate.

And so it's like, it's almost impossible to think you can get there unless it's just human bias, you know?

... that we shouldn't have crossed?

Well, this is...

You know, we talked about this on our show yesterday, and, uh, Carl and I both had sort of the same take, which is y- you can't...

There was all this discussion in Trump's first term by the Democrats.

Oh, he's breaking all these norms.

He's, you know, he's v- trampling the Constitution.

He's doing all these things.

Yeah

Go ahead, Tom.

Yeah, I mean, so look, politics typically, right, and Democrats this, both sides want fighters, right? They want people who are gonna fight, and, and there has to be a level of indignation and outrage.

But you also, you want happy warriors.

I mean, the, the sort of angry, bitter thing doesn't wear well over time, and certainly doesn't wear well in a general election setting.

It may play to the base, but, uh, you know, when she's trying to win over moderates and independents, being a sort of angry, threatening person, uh, it typically doesn't work.

So I, I've, as Carl mentioned, I thought this race was a long shot to begin with.

I think it's, it's almost hopeless for the Democrats now.

My God

So staying on the Wisconsin gubernatorial, uh, the Democratic primary, you think it's something Francesca Hong did or didn't do, and not something, uh, that David Crowley did or did do to, to win that primary?

Yeah, I mean, I think it was a combination of factors, and I'm sure when we open it up to calls, the first, the [laughs] the first question is gonna be, "Why were the polls so wrong in Wisconsin?" And, and that is a good question.

I mean, we did have...

You know, we had a miss in, in Michigan last week, another miss, uh, in Wisconsin this week, and I think that it was a combination of factors, right? The, the last poll that was taken by the Marquette University Law School, Charles Franklin, who's been polling that state for, for decades now, uh, was completed on July 27th.

Mandela Barnes was still in the race.

He didn't drop out until the 30th.

And so, and consequently, you had, in the last week of this race or 10 days of this race, you had an intense focus on, on Frances- Francesca Hong's, again, sort of missteps and these statements that, that really, um, hurt her campaign, so there...

Can these two things be equated?

Despite Hong's loss, Bevin pushing back on the idea that the result represents a major defeat for the Democratic Socialist movement.

I do think, you know, there, there has been story after story written that this is the, you know, the, the socialists hit a wall, and this is the end of their march, and the momentum has stopped.

I really don't think that's the lesson here.

I mean, Francesca Hong was a political novice.

She had a bunch of positions that were well outside the mainstream.

In addition to that, she had these other comments like she w- you know, about wanting to do away with Thanksgiving and the white proximity to her half-white son and all of these things.

And yet, despite all of that, she only lost by 3,800 votes.

We asked Bevin what Tafoya's decisive primary win tells us about her appeal and whether the message that worked with Republican voters can translate to a broader Minnesota electorate.

It hurt him

... and everybody was willing to sort of look past that because they were able to say, "Look, this is a conservative woman." They can't say that anymore.

And obviously, uh, now, now some, some line has been crossed here that, that even Democrats, as you mentioned, pretty much everybody except for Bernie Sanders at this point has called on Platner to get out of the race.

And so I, I think he is...

What's interesting about what Mark just said, it's gonna be fascinating to watch this play out, 'cause if you look at the betting markets, uh, the, the odds of, of Democrats winning that seat actually popped up.

They might, they might end up with...

Because Platner was, he had so much baggage, but he also had this enthusiasm among the sort of, you know, left-wing base.

The third unnamed woman in the story did as well, but tell me again how they, quote, 'Could not corroborate.'" Tom, that is devastating.

Um, and so y- I don't know exactly where this, um, you know-

know-Where this ends up, but it certainly has...

It's, it's a, it's a development that I think has people concerned because there's, you know, the...

Using APAC is just sort of like a, a, a blanket.

I mean, what, what people really, I think, what Democrats really mean when they talk about APAC is they're saying Jews, basically.

It's not, they're not making a distinction between, "Listen, I disagree with Bibi Netanyahu.

I don't like him.

For real.

What do you think?

Yeah, there's definitely something to it.

I mean, I don't know that Cornyn was, was seen as, as corrupt, but he definitelyYou know, he was seen as part of the establishment and, and that's not where the base of the party is.

I mean, this is the, the lesson for, for all of these politicians, and we see this on the left and the right, which is when you stop responding to the, the wants and desires of your constituents, you're gonna get replaced, and that's exactly what happened.

He was, he was not responding to the MAGA base in Texas.

He was still running sort of the George W. Bush, you know, Republican Party playbook in Washington, DC, and so he was promptly shown the door.

And as you mentioned at the top of the show, I mean, Paxton was ahead in the polls, but I, I don't think anybody saw it being a, a 30-point blowout, which is what it ended up being.

Um, do, does any of them stick do you think? Do, do any of them stick around and actually gain traction now that it's Dem versus Republican in Texas?

Hmm.

He was a trader, and I was in advertising, but we were just political junkies.

We just loved the stuff, and we would watch the Sunday shows, and we would listen to talk radio and read, read the op-ed pages and talk about them.

And so in the late-'90s, mid to late-'90s, was really the first time where you could read what was being written in The New York Times and the LA Times on the same day.

Mm-hmm

... right? Where you have...

There ha- there, there are now a number of re- Republican pollsters, Republican-leaning pollsters, Trafalgar and Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, and the like, um, that are...

And the narrative, you know, which, which came out of the 28- 2022 and then again in 2024 was that these were all Republican-leaning polls, and they're polluting all the averages-

Mm.

He was a trader, and I was in advertising, but we were just political junkies.

We just loved the stuff, and we would watch the Sunday shows, and we would listen to talk radio and read, read the op-ed pages and talk about them.

And so in the late '90s, mid to late '90s, was really the first time where you could read what was being written in The New York Times and the LA Times on the same day.

Mm-hmm

... right? Where you have...

There ha- there, there are now a number of rep- Republican pollsters, Republican-leaning pollsters, Trafalgar and Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, and the like, um, that are...

And the narrative, you know, which, which came out of the '28- 2022 and then again in 2024 was that these were all Republican-leaning polls, and they're polluting all the averages-

I- Tom Bevan, you tell me your take on it as somebody who was actually there.

there.So I, and I saw Brian Stelter's thing, and I, I tweeted something back at him saying, you know...

Listen, there was a moment, there was about 90 seconds when after, after the noise, right? Which was this muffled sound that, that we couldn't be sure was a gunshot, and, you know, that the, the doors opened and the Secret Service came swarming in the room, like 50 agents, and they were like plowing through, climbing over tables and all that, and that was kinda dramatic.

And we wouldn't, didn't know if there was a shooter in the middle of the room they were trying to get to or what was going on, and everyone was looking around and, and, um, but then we realized that, you know, they were try- they were there trying to get to the Cabinet members and get them out of the room.

And once they did that, and they, obviously they got the president, the vice president, and the first lady off the stage, then w- there w- that was it.

I mean, we were all kinda stood there and for about 15 minutes trying to, you know...

And, and there was y- y- there wasn't good Wi-Fi in the, in the ballroom, Megan, which is why, like, people couldn't send texts or get calls or whatever, so there was a bit of an information void.

Yes

And I was all set to really rip it.

[laughs]

What happened? [laughs]

Yeah, I mean, it, look, it, it was...

And people have seen the video.

It was kinda surreal being in the room.

There was, uh, a-

Historically, have we seen dips this low, like these numbers with independents where he's got 22% approval ratings, and still a party able to win, let's say, at the midterms, Tom?

Well, y- typically...

I mean, the problem that Trump is, is experiencing, all right, midterms are typically lower turnout, so they're base elections.

And Trump has...

He has shattered his base.

I mean, the coalition that elected him and, and has fueled MAGA is now split over this.

And it's not like a...

Yeah

Absolutely right

...Megyn, I, I, last week, I think it was, or maybe the week before, I was asked to moderate an interview with Joe Abraham.

And Joe is a, he's an angel father.

His daughter, Katie Abraham, was killed a year ago in January at, uh, in Champaign-Urbana.

She was down there visiting friends.

She was 20 years old, and a guy who was in the country illegally rammed into her, the car she was in, at 80 miles an hour.

They were at a stoplight, and she was killed instantly.

[scoffs]

And Trump's-- Trump Rx ain't it." Agree or disagree?

I, I agree with some parts of it, uh, disagree with others.

I mean, first of all, the SAVE Act, uh, the majority of the country is in favor of that, w- you know, across the board.

Even, I think, a majority of Democrats are in favor of it, but certainly African American voters, Hispanics, Republicans, Independents, think it's kind of common sense that you should have voter ID laws.

So, um, is affordability a big issue? Yes, it is a big issue.

Is, is Trump, um...

You know, he's got some work to do.

There's sometimes people have this debate, are we in a vibe session, where the idea is people have gotten used to the idea that they just say affordability is their go-to acceptable expression for, "Things just don't always feel awesome." And I guess the part that goes with that is, do-- does Trump doing events meaningfully help on this question? H- how do you actually imprint the idea, "Oh, actually, the economy is doing well, or at least this administration is improving things"? I, I guess, I don't see the obvious link between him doing an event at the White House and better poll numbers necessarily.

AGREE OR DISAGREE?

I agree with some parts of it, disagree with others.

I mean, first of all, the SAVE Act, the majority of the country is in favor of that, you know, across the board.

Even I think a majority of Democrats are in favor of it, but certainly African-American voters, Hispanics, Republicans, independents think it's kind of common sense that you should have voter ID laws.

So is affordability a big issue? Yes, it is a big issue.

Is Trump...

You know, he's got some work to do.

Part that goes with that is, does Trump doing events meaningfully help on this question? How do you actually imprint the idea, oh, actually the economy is doing well, or at least this administration is improving things? I guess I don't see the obvious link between him doing an event at the White House and better poll numbers necessarily.

I can explain why, but your thoughts overall, Tom, to kick it off on where we are and, and that soundbite in particular.

Yeah, this was, uh, this was something by Trump, and he- I did not see his press conference yesterday.

I was traveling back from Arizona, and so I didn't see that.

It didn't get good reviews.

Apparently, he just sort of rambled on and on.

This one, he stayed on script pretty much.

I mean, he always goes off script to a certain degree, right? But he did...

That's the point, and he, he was attacking Europe on energy.

To ignore what happened with Charlie Kirk in September, Tom, and, and the worldwide revival of faith that followed his assassination is to ignore reality based on your own politics.

Yeah, I think that's right.

I mean, you know, on one level, it's not really surprising, you know, it's Time Magazine.

It's just like, okay, whatever.

But on the other hand, it, it does, uh, sort of fly in the face of, of reality.

I mean, whether, uh, whatever you thought of, of Charlie Kirk, whether you liked him or didn't like him, he was a massively influential figure in our politics.

And, and then when he was assassinated, it was a, it was a traumatic event in our s- you know, in our, our lives and our society.

(laughs)

So bad.

And, and so they, they really seem to be just sort of flailing about.

And, and the question is, okay, well, you know, how much is this gonna hurt them politically? And, you know...

Or are we just living in two completely different information bubbles where, you know, the left thinks the Democrats, you know, they're, they're, they're with them and the right is obviously with the Republicans and, and...

So, there is...

There's very little political damage that can, that can come from this? On the other hand, you know, I, I...

They're definitely not helping themselves, I don't think.

Yep.

Tom, thoughts on that? (laughs)

Well, I do think you're right about...

Look, the fact-checking thing, this was, this was something that, that came, basically blossomed around when Trump came into office, right? And we were constantly getting these, you know, "Oh, Trump's told X number of lies," and PolitiFact and, and all that.

I mean, it...

PolitiFact was around longer than that, um, but it, it really did show that, uh, these fact-checkers, you know, it's in the eye of the beholder.

When you're only fact-checking Republicans, never fact-checking Democrats, they lost credibility, uh, you know, with the way that they were conducting themselves in their work.

And, you know, you mentioned people going to Substack and, and them sort of exposing their biases or, or you know, freeing themselves.

(laughs)

Go ahead, Tom.

Yeah, so, I mean, the thing about that is- is if that's what she meant, that's certainly not how it was portrayed in the media when she said it months ago.

So, she could have clarified it at any time.

Say, "No, no, no, no, no.

I didn't say there was a list.

I just meant the review." She also said there were tens of thousands of videos.

And- and so, you know, that kinda...

... because it wasn't, "What's your national origin?" It was, "What is your race?" Go ahead and explain it because we haven't talked about it with our audience yet.

Second hand embarrassment.

I mean, there are just so many, so many things about this that require more investigation, and I hope you play that clip for Jake Tapper and have him respond to it.

Uh, and- and there were other instances.

Look, when the Duck report came out, uh, y- you know, Democrats and, and folks in the media, um, they had people on to rebut that.

That Wall Street Journal piece that you talked about, did anyone have those Wall Street Jour- Journal reporters on their shows, or did they just have the surrogates for Biden come on to say, "Oh, this is..." you know, wave- wave it away.

And remember, Megan, I mean, this is...

You mentioned this.

Right.

Yeah.

... we've both been in this game long enough to know that, that the media is, is not always gonna report everything in a sort of fair and objective way, and this is, uh, another example of that.

But I think you're right, and look, this is, uh, I think it was important for the Supreme Court to, to step in here, not just in this case, but the other ones you mentioned.... um, to put some of these lower court judges sort of back in their lane, back in their place.

I mean, this had gotten out of control.

We've talked about this on our show.

The number of in- nation-wide injunctions that have been issued just in the first two months of the Trump administration, and two-thirds of all of them that have been issued were, you know, s- issued in the last nine years, since Donald Trump took office.

So this was a, a real problem.

The majority of the, of the populous still thinks he's using presidential power appropriately, and, and a hefty amount of them, nearly 20% think he hasn't gone far enough.

What do you think about that, Tom?

I mean, this is a guy who's pals with journalists, of course he's gonna show up sometime.

(laughs)

I want him broken. I want him to look like this brick, broken and held up as a trophy of war.