Five Truths About War With Iran They Still Don't Want You To Hear! | Ep. 324

Anyways, the main reason for this episode today is actually to revisit a, a series of predictions I made about the Iran war the day it popped off, or like two days after it popped off.

I wanted to do this for the six-month anniversary of the war, which I predicted, uh, but things got too busy and, and it was a little bit overwhelming time.

So now we're closer to the midterm elections and, uh, this seems like a good time to revisit these predictions.

I wrote a, an essay for the newsletter called Five Uncomfortable Truths About the Iran War, and then I released a podcast episode by the same name.

It tracks fairly closely with what I wrote.

It's not exactly, um, a match, and the, the podcast episode on this, I'm gonna share that on the back end here because the episode was recorded live, uh, from the Kapiti Coast.

I was walking on the beach in my neighborhood.

I had my gear with me to record an episode, and so I kind of impromptu did a walk and talk on the beach, and it was like a mind-clearing, throat-clearing exercise.

What, what I say is extemporaneous basically, like I'm not sitting there with notes or anything.

But it was a sort of after reflection of, uh, having written the essay, Five Uncomfortable Truths About the Iran War.

And when I look at these five truths, man, they hold up.

They, they don't just hold up.

It's the only way to understand how we end up in this situation now, which I predicted, right? So the five uncomfortable truths are explanations for why the Iran war and why now.

Um, the predictions are about what was going to happen, right? The predictions were like, America is not gonna win.

America is going to run short on missile interceptors.

And I, I probably made like 10 or 12 predictions within the space of the, you know, short 17-minute episode or whatever.

But the explanations for how we get to now were like, okay, this is a, not a regime change war, it's a regime collapse war.

The idea is to make Iran into chaos, to like melt Iran as a functioning nation-state.

And because of that, the war has to go on.

And one of the contradictions that I i- identified within the five uncomfortable truths, on the one hand you need the Iran war to be a permanent war for a number of reasons which I explain, but you also can't have it be a permanent war, uh, because we have a capacity shortfall, a missile interceptors problem.

So the only thing that I halfway predict in the episode that doesn't quite, you know, catch up to right now is about the missile interceptors.

I was like, "We have 10 days of missiles to, to do this war.

At when we run out, we're gonna have to expand the war in some way or, or export it, hand it off, or we're gonna have to cease fire, right? Sue for peace or whatever." The Trump administration has cease fired several times because they need to replenish stockpiles.

Um, the war kept going though, which it, permanent war, I said it needed to.

Um, it kept going because it borrowed missile stock from Asia.