Jun 15, 2026 · 57 min · 9 segments
*“We are not living through the end of the world. We are living through a transition from one global order to another, and that is uncomfortable.”* Geopolitics can feel like an endless scroll of…
So are there any other large scale factors that are, you listed three, you were like energy transition that we're going through is one of the biggest since, you know, coal and oil and the tech innovation that's happening, tech and innovation that's happening right now.
And then the multi-polarity.
To me, these seem like the three pieces that make up this lens in which you are applying to, or that you're applying analysis to for your clients.
Is there anything that you could add to that list? Or is that, are those the kind of the three main pillars?
Those are the big picture things and they will affect different clients in different ways.
And as clients have different pain points, you might have to go into different sub factors of it.
And one of the things that's, and I really hope people don't listen to this next sentence and think, oh, this is like the fourth turning because I actually have a big problem with the fourth turning.
But one of the reasons I think there is such a feeling of disjuncture to go back to the first part of our conversation is that these three things are happening at the same time.
Like the energy transition happened before the shift to bipolarity and you didn't have a tech transition that was happening at the same time.
And so it's hard to ascribe, well, what is related to this and what's related to this.
And yet the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for, what, two months? And it's still closed and it's not going to open anytime soon.
Your tone is showing me that this is surprising, but this is above my head.
I don't understand why it's shocking that the markets are so high and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed.
Because you would have thought that if there was like a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that we would be in market disaster, that it would have been like the 1970s and everybody would have been freaking
out.
I think it's that push and pull between everybody's been telling themselves the AI story, which I think is real.
There's a technology transition happening that is going to power growth and increase productivity and change our relationship with work and everything else versus a geopolitical reality, which is constraining some of the physical commodities that you need in order to make those things work.
So are there any other large scale factors that are, you listed three, you were like energy transition that we're going through is one of the biggest since, you know, coal and oil and the tech innovation that's happening, tech and innovation that's happening right now.
And then the multi-polarity.
To me, these seem like the three pieces that make up this lens in which you are applying to, or that you're applying analysis to for your clients.
Is there anything that you could add to that list? Or is that, are those the kind of the three main pillars?
Those are the big picture things and they will affect different clients in different ways.
And as clients have different pain points, you might have to go into different sub factors of it.
And one of the things that's, and I really hope people don't listen to this next sentence and think, oh, this is like the fourth turning because I actually have a big problem with the fourth turning.
But one of the reasons I think there is such a feeling of disjuncture to go back to the first part of our conversation is that these three things are happening at the same time.
Like the energy transition happened before the shift to bipolarity and you didn't have a tech transition that was happening at the same time.
And so it's hard to ascribe, well, what is related to this and what's related to this.
And yet the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for, what, two months? And it's still closed and it's not going to open anytime soon.
Your tone is showing me that this is surprising, but this is above my head.
I don't understand why it's shocking that the markets are so high and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed.
Because you would have thought that if there was like a closure of the Strait of Hormuz that we would be in market disaster, that it would have been like the 1970s and everybody would have been freaking
out.
I think it's that push and pull between everybody's been telling themselves the AI story, which I think is real.
There's a technology transition happening that is going to power growth and increase productivity and change our relationship with work and everything else versus a geopolitical reality, which is constraining some of the physical commodities that you need in order to make those things work.
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