The blockade, the midterms and Iran’s permanent revolution with Dr. Meir Javedanfar

Dr. Meir Javedanfar was born in Tehran and left at 14, a year after his bar mitzvah. He has written about Iran since 2005 and has taught contemporary Iranian studies at Reichman University since 2011. In this episode he tells Marc Schulman he expects the Islamic Republic to start another round of fighting with the United States. His reasoning starts with resources. The US naval blockade has stopped Iran’s oil exports and cut off about 80 percent of the imports that used to arrive through Gulf ports. Oil prices haven’t moved despite the closure of Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf states haven’t asked the Americans to leave. Javedanfar compares the faction now in charge in Tehran to Trotsky’s advocates of permanent revolution. He says that faction sees raising the war’s cost before the US midterms as its only lever. He describes the regime’s hardliners as an economic class more than a religious one. People who would otherwise ride the bus now run sanctions-busting oil brokerages in the UAE, with drivers and multimillion-dollar budgets. They know they lose everything if the regime falls. In his view, Islam has become a veneer. Marc and Meir also cover why Israel’s readiness to kill Iranian commanders deters Tehran more than American strikes on infrastructure. They discuss why the UAE is the likeliest target after Mohammed bin Zayed hosted Netanyahu, and why Erdogan wants the regime to survive. Javedanfar points to a wave of resignations by Iranian teachers and nurses, which has not yet reached the security forces. The conversation ends with a dream Marc asks for: the regime’s fall. Javedanfar expects chaos and score-settling over mass graves at first, and a water crisis no new government could fix quickly. He still thinks Iran’s chances would be far better without this regime. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe