Jul 3, 2026 · 1 hr 31 min · 17 segments
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Scott BarrettHost
Brett WhitefieldGuest
Uh, that's, that had a massive gap, uh, 0.15 EPA per play differential versus, uh, from passing it versus running it.
Um, and so yeah, it's just basically like on first and 10, teams should be passing it way more than they are.
And you see this on the screen here, so h- here are the top 10 teams by pass rate over expectation.
And yeah, Drew Petsig, Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Liam Cohen, uh, Sean Payton, Josh McDaniel, and so like Kyle Shanahan, Shane Steichen.
If I, I had to rank my top 12 offensive play callers in the NFL, I think all those guys, uh, would be on it, not, not Zach Taylor, but, uh, just about everyone else.
Um, but it's, it's certainly true from an efficiency standpoint that teams should be passing way more on early downs than they are.
Can you, Brett, tell the listeners why you think that's the case, why that makes sense to you?
I have a, a quick guide to hacking NFL defenses, getting those, those valuable, you know, exploitable opportunities.
It's can we create conflict? Can we create leverage opportunities? Can we create mismatches? Or can we give the element of surprise? If you can check any of those four boxes, you are at an advantage over the defense.
If you can check multiple of those boxes in the same play, the advantage grows and grows and grows.
And so early down passing is this paradox where I, I think some teams struggle with it because they have this idea that they have to stay on schedule, right? We need that four, four or five-yard run to get us to second and five.
That's when you get the play action hack, right? Second and five, third and two.
It's the element of surprise ultimately because you can dictate terms where a defense is so used to triggering run and playing those run fits.
And in fact, they'll even, they're more likely to dial up run blitzes and stack the line of scrimmage on early downs.
So when you do pass the ball, there is space to out-leverage your opponent.
Uh, that's, that had a massive gap, uh, 0.15 EPA per play differential versus, uh, from passing it versus running it.
Um, and so yeah, it's just basically like on first and 10, teams should be passing it way more than they are.
And you see this on the screen here, so h- here are the top 10 teams by pass rate over expectation.
And yeah, Drew Petsig, Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Liam Cohen, uh, Sean Payton, Josh McDaniel, and so like Kyle Shanahan, Shane Steichen.
If I, I had to rank my top 12 offensive play callers in the NFL, I think all those guys, uh, would be on it, not, not Zach Taylor, but, uh, just about everyone else.
Um, but it's, it's certainly true from an efficiency standpoint that teams should be passing way more on early downs than they are.
Can you, Brett, tell the listeners why you think that's the case, why that makes sense to you?
I have a, a quick guide to hacking NFL defenses, getting those, those valuable, you know, exploitable opportunities.
It's can we create conflict? Can we create leverage opportunities? Can we create mismatches? Or can we give the element of surprise? If you can check any of those four boxes, you are at an advantage over the defense.
If you can check multiple of those boxes in the same play, the advantage grows and grows and grows.
And so early down passing is this paradox where I, I think some teams struggle with it because they have this idea that they have to stay on schedule, right? We need that four, four or five-yard run to get us to second and five.
That's when you get the play action hack, right? Second and five, third and two.
It's the element of surprise ultimately because you can dictate terms where a defense is so used to triggering run and playing those run fits.
And in fact, they'll even, they're more likely to dial up run blitzes and stack the line of scrimmage on early downs.
So when you do pass the ball, there is space to out-leverage your opponent.
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