Macro Talk: 9.11.2026

Okay, so let's talk through what happened in macro markets this week.

Bob, dare I say it? I think as we progressed through the week, it was basically an inflationary week.

Monday, we had the U.S. markets closed.

So that's why you see the zeros on the screen.

But over the weekend, we did get news of escalating tariff tensions, and we also got escalations in the Iran war dynamic.

And as a result, copper hit new all-time highs, energy begun its ascent, which basically progressed through most of the week until today.

As a result, you basically had equities and fixed income under pressure.

Obviously, given the direct transmission from energy to break-evens, you had... you had fixed income generally under more pressure.

I think on Thursday, Thursday was really, I think, the pivotal day because we had the Treasury buyback announcements.

I think the consensus, whatever you call that consensus, the consensus was that the buybacks would be much larger than were announced.

And as a result, you actually had fixed income sell off on the announcement of the buybacks.

And then today we had a relatively hot CPI.

And as a result, we have markets repricing once again.

Bob, what did you make of this week's price action?

Well, bonds are, in fact, the worst this week.

I will give you that.

I mean, man, they couldn't get a single bit of breath through the course of the week.

Combination of the commodity price shock continuing, plus, I guess, a bit of besant disappointment, plus a hotter than expected CPI means that, you know, you're getting a little...

Anyway, they're not getting as much relief as one might hope.

And so it certainly looks like an inflationary dynamic.

I mean, man, we sort of say it every week and it keeps happening.

Right.

Absolutely.

I think, you know, we put out a note last week or maybe the week before, but basically the title of the note was that energy is the principal component of macro.

And I think that just sums up everything that's going on.