Consumer price index

Like for example, the government tracks healthcare costs and spending, but they don't track health insurance costs, but the two should match up, right? What I pay for insurance should be some kind of, Be somewhat indicative of what the cost structure is in health care.

So their health care CPI, their cost structure over the last five years has averaged two and a half percent.

Well, I can tell you as a smaller business, we just got our health insurance renewals and keeping our same plan from last year is a 22 percent increase going into next year.

just in one year.

So let's talk about that macroeconomic backdrop.

So we have CPI, PPI readings coming out.

I mean, we've been above the Fed's target rate for like 66 months.

Should the Fed officially abandon this? Like, what is the new norm for inflation? How are you thinking about that?

And in general, it is pretty much going up, starting from the beginning all the way through.

We got jobs number on the 6th, CPI is on the 10th.

The election is on the 3rd, which is, I should have put that in here too.

It's right over here.

So the election's on the 3rd, then we get jobs, and then we get CPI coming after that.

No Fed meeting.

No Fed meeting, yep.

Yeah, next month.

And then we're seeing materials and tech stocks the clear winners today.

Tomorrow's CPI print remains the key domestic macro event on the horizon, which is keeping rate-sensitive areas of the market on edge today.

On the commodities front, we do have Brent crude trading down 0.7% around 1.13 US a barrel.

Copper up about 0.3% at that 6.60 US a pound level.

Like the idea, I don't think that the Iran war has is like, you know, it's not going to last forever.

And that's the only, that's the main reason that, CPI is where it is.

And certainly I think that if CPI, if owner wasn't using owner's equivalent rent, we're seeing, I mean, we're seeing real estate prices fall right now, right? Like rents are flat.

Rents are flat to down, real estate prices are flat and more down than flat, like, but owner's equivalent rent is not show is not ticking negative in those CPI calculations.

I'm like, dude, the spread between what I consider to be actual, like real, you know, can affect with monetary policy inflation versus the 10 year or even, even versus SOFR.

But then like, you know, look like the idea that that's going to stay there for, you know, for a 10 year period, you know, I'm like, ah, that's, it feels like a pretty good investment opportunity at five and a quarter.

The second one is just like, well, what do we observe? And the answer is what you observe is that when there's an interest rate event like non-farm Fridays...

and CPI Wednesdays, I guess.

And if there's a big number, then you will see bonds move.

You will see a move from risk on to risk off or vice versa.

September numbers came in on inflation and not looking too good.

The CPI came in through September up 3.7% year over year.

It was just like the crash, it was only 3.4% in August, and they expected it to be 3.6%, so it was much higher than they expected.

The month-over-month increase was 0.6%, and again, August's was 0.4%, so again, a lot higher.

Then we've got Apple and Amazon on Thursday night, which is our Friday morning.

We've also got a raft of – we've got CPI tomorrow here in Australia.

We've got RBA next week, five of the G10 companies Central Banks this week as well.

So we've got, we'll have the Fed into Apple and Amazon results.