What Is Game Theory?

Now, if I understand correctly, that's a, that's a branch of mathematics, and it, it's one that tries to model strategic interactions, like the prisoner's dilemma.

Right, which is the imaginary scenario where you have these two prisoners who have committed a crime together, but there's not enough evidence to convict without a confession.

So the cops take them to separate interrogation rooms, and each of them gets offered the same deal.

So if you confess, but the other guy doesn't, we'll sentence him to five years and let you off scot-free.

Okay, well, surely I'm gonna confess then, right? I mean, who cares about my friend?

Well, not so fast, Josh.

If you both confess, you both get three years.

So I guess we should each keep our mouth shut?

But then the cops are gonna get you on some bogus charges, and each of you will get a one-year sentence.

Whew, okay, so now I'm stumped.

If, if I turn my friend in and he says nothing, I'm free to go.

Okay, great.

But if we both stay quiet, I get one year.

And if we both confess, it's three years.

Oh, and if he turns me in first, I get five.

So what should I do?

Well, a lot of game theorists would argue that you should confess.

Like, think about it this way.

You have no control over what your friend does.

He's off in another room doing whatever he's gonna do.

And if he keeps quiet, you can get off scot-free by turning him in instead of having to serve that year in prison.

And if he turns you in, you better protect yourself by turning him in, too, so that you get only three years in prison instead of five.

I mean, that sounds good, but isn't my friend gonna have exactly the same idea? He'll decide to turn me in, and then both of us will get three years, whereas if we just kept our mouths shut, we'd only get one year.

How is game theory helping me?

Well, it might not give you a single answer about what's the best thing for everybody to do, but it at least helps you understand what's going on.