Nov 1, 2026 · 49 min · 10 segments
Three days before the midterms, a New York Times investigation alleges that Mary Peltola’s campaign and national Democratic operatives searched Alaska’s voter rolls for a second Dan Sullivan to put on…
Ben DomenechHostIan RussellGuest
Tim RiceHostCorinne HajarGuestI mean, I think when people ask for my general predictions, I always give them the unsatisfying answer that I refuse to give them predictions.
But Broad strokes, I think the Senate is gonna be much closer than people think.
The House, I've spent less time on, but it is looking like that's trending blue.
Look, I think broad trends to keep an eye on, incumbency, which incumbents are able, there's this huge frustration with incumbents, with establishments, it's all sort of part of the same voter frustration that I've been hearing across the country when I'm going out to talk to people.
I think Susan Collins will be a test case for a lot of these trends, specifically because she is a very effective incumbent.
And then can effective Republicans escape national frustrations with the economy, with foreign entanglements? And I think Maine is another test case of that, where Collins has tried to establish her independence.
So as a Democrat, the thing I'll be looking very closely at, I think, which has a lot of relevance for the future of the party, is what types of states and districts can Democrats win in? And that will determine the size of whatever wave environment we're in.
In 2018, Democratic gains were mostly, not exclusively, but mostly restricted to suburbs where Trump's numbers tanked.
In fact, as you all would know, Republicans picked up seats in the Senate, while Democrats did a great job at the House level.
We had a couple aberrations to that, one in Maine with Jared Golden against Bruce Poliquin, but generally it was a suburban anti-Trump revolt.
Twenty years ago, Democrats were winning Senate seats in the Midwest and the Great Plains.
People were willing to vote for Democrats because we weren't as ideologically balkanized as we are as a country right now.
So one of the very key things I'll be looking for on Tuesday night, and then as we analyze the results afterwards, is that balkanization still containing Democratic gains to a number of the toss-ups, mostly in suburban, higher-educated, higher-income districts? Or has the wall burst and the flood kind of gone everywhere, more similar to 2007? Well, can I
ask you, but isn't it a problem for Democrats? Let's map this out as a scenario, because I think it's a realistic scenario.
I mean, I think when people ask for my general predictions, I always give them the unsatisfying answer that I refuse to give them predictions.
But Broad strokes, I think the Senate is gonna be much closer than people think.
The House, I've spent less time on, but it is looking like that's trending blue.
Look, I think broad trends to keep an eye on, incumbency, which incumbents are able, there's this huge frustration with incumbents, with establishments, it's all sort of part of the same voter frustration that I've been hearing across the country when I'm going out to talk to people.
I think Susan Collins will be a test case for a lot of these trends, specifically because she is a very effective incumbent.
And then can effective Republicans escape national frustrations with the economy, with foreign entanglements? And I think Maine is another test case of that, where Collins has tried to establish her independence.
So as a Democrat, the thing I'll be looking very closely at, I think, which has a lot of relevance for the future of the party, is what types of states and districts can Democrats win in? And that will determine the size of whatever wave environment we're in.
In 2018, Democratic gains were mostly, not exclusively, but mostly restricted to suburbs where Trump's numbers tanked.
In fact, as you all would know, Republicans picked up seats in the Senate, while Democrats did a great job at the House level.
We had a couple aberrations to that, one in Maine with Jared Golden against Bruce Poliquin, but generally it was a suburban anti-Trump revolt.
Twenty years ago, Democrats were winning Senate seats in the Midwest and the Great Plains.
People were willing to vote for Democrats because we weren't as ideologically balkanized as we are as a country right now.
So one of the very key things I'll be looking for on Tuesday night, and then as we analyze the results afterwards, is that balkanization still containing Democratic gains to a number of the toss-ups, mostly in suburban, higher-educated, higher-income districts? Or has the wall burst and the flood kind of gone everywhere, more similar to 2007? Well, can I
ask you, but isn't it a problem for Democrats? Let's map this out as a scenario, because I think it's a realistic scenario.
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