Final Emmys Predictions 2026 | Best Bets, Oscars Odds & The Odyssey's Biggest Best Picture Threat

So question number one from Brando9998, is Spider-Man Brand New Day a good pick for a visual effects nomination at the Oscars? Seems underpriced.

What do you think?

I think visual effects is looking already pretty stacked this year.

I think if you look at the nominations that seem like locks, I'd say June 3.

I'd say Odyssey.

I'd say Project Hail Mary.

So there's three.

They all seem like locks.

Then you've got Disclosure Day, the new Avengers, what's it, Doomsday, Narnia, you've got Mandalorian, you've got the Godzilla might be back in there, End of Oak Street, Sheep Detectives, Whale Fall even.

Is Spider-Man, is it really... undeniable amongst that list? Is it doing anything really new or interesting? It's certainly got the box office behind it.

It's now number four all-time box office.

In what? It hasn't even been two months.

It's been like six weeks.

I think it's probably right on the edge of a nomination.

I would say no play.

I think there's too many other big knobs to come.

Yeah, so Godzilla Minus Zero will have the sequel or the next installment of that franchise, which was a previous visual effects winner.

Remember when that happened? So it's a 96 win percent probability on prediction markets.

And yeah, you've highlighted some of the others who also are strongly in the mix.

We've got Avengers Doomsday still to come.

That's currently rated a 44% chance.

Now, I look back on the history of visual effects nominees for superhero movies, Tony, and in the last 10 years, 9 of 50 have been nominated.

So that's a strike rate of 18%.

It doesn't sound great.

That's not too good,

So question number one from Brando9998, is Spider-Man Brand New Day a good pick for a visual effects nomination at the Oscars? Seems underpriced.

What do you think?

I think visual effects is looking already pretty stacked this year.

I think if you look at the nominations that seem like locks, I'd say June 3.

I'd say Odyssey.

I'd say Project Hail Mary.

So there's three.

They all seem like locks.

Then you've got Disclosure Day, the new Avengers, what's it, Doomsday, Narnia, you've got Mandalorian, you've got the Godzilla might be back in there, End of Oak Street, Sheep Detectives, Whale Fall even.

Is Spider-Man, is it really... undeniable amongst that list? Is it doing anything really new or interesting? It's certainly got the box office behind it.

It's now number four all-time box office.

In what? It hasn't even been two months.

It's been like six weeks.

I think it's probably right on the edge of a nomination.

I would say no play.

I think there's too many other big knobs to come.

Yeah, so Godzilla Minus Zero will have the sequel or the next installment of that franchise, which was a previous visual effects winner.

Remember when that happened? So it's a 96 win percent probability on prediction markets.

And yeah, you've highlighted some of the others who also are strongly in the mix.

We've got Avengers Doomsday still to come.

That's currently rated a 44% chance.

Now, I look back on the history of visual effects nominees for superhero movies, Tony, and in the last 10 years, 9 of 50 have been nominated.

So that's a strike rate of 18%.

It doesn't sound great.

That's not too good,