Oct 6, 2026 · 1 hr 3 min · 14 segments
The religious vote is often treated as shorthand for white evangelical Christians. PRRI CEO and political scientist Melissa Deckman says that misses much of what is happening ahead of the 2026…
Melissa DeckmanGuestJosh BurtramHostWill WrightHostBut, like, the, the funny question first is, like, for a person like you that just has all these numbers in your head [laughs] that-
I'm like, I'm like, like, when you read the news, like, do, do you just, like, feel constantly affirmed? You know, where you're just like, "Oh, good.
My data did say that this group would, would behave this way on this political issue." Like, I'm, I'm just curious.
I will tell you though, most political scientists I know after 2016 [laughs] began to question a lot of that judgment because the polls were showing Hillary Clinton was gonna win.
Uh, Trump was such a, you know, um, an irregular candidate, that's probably a very nice way of putting it, um, that a, a lot of people felt that there's just no way that he would be elected.
Hillary Clinton got more votes than he did, but the Electoral College math worked in his favor.
So I think there was almost a hesitancy for some political scientists [laughs] to be like, "Well, are, are data really showing us what we think?" But in, but since that time, I think the polls have been pretty predictive.
And the thing is, not every poll is the same, and we'll talk maybe about this as well, but you really have to look for high-quality surveys that are drawn from a representative sample.
But, like, the, the funny question first is, like, for a person like you that just has all these numbers in your head [laughs] that-
I'm like, I'm like, like, when you read the news, like, do, do you just, like, feel constantly affirmed? You know, where you're just like, "Oh, good.
My data did say that this group would, would behave this way on this political issue." Like, I'm, I'm just curious.
I will tell you though, most political scientists I know after 2016 [laughs] began to question a lot of that judgment because the polls were showing Hillary Clinton was gonna win.
Uh, Trump was such a, you know, um, an irregular candidate, that's probably a very nice way of putting it, um, that a, a lot of people felt that there's just no way that he would be elected.
Hillary Clinton got more votes than he did, but the Electoral College math worked in his favor.
So I think there was almost a hesitancy for some political scientists [laughs] to be like, "Well, are, are data really showing us what we think?" But in, but since that time, I think the polls have been pretty predictive.
And the thing is, not every poll is the same, and we'll talk maybe about this as well, but you really have to look for high-quality surveys that are drawn from a representative sample.
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