#37 OpenAI/ Hugging Face Post-Mortem (AI doomerism or Marketing?)

People have been talking about this probability of doom or P of doom for quite a bit of time now.

And maybe the last two years, three years or whatever, we often heard that, oh, even chat GPT-2, it was GPT-2 and then chat GPT, too dangerous to release.

Then it was the, if you remember the O1 model from OpenAI, too dangerous to be released.

Then most recently, it was Mythos and then Fable, which is like a safer version of that.

So we had this narrative of this AI is too dangerous for quite a bit of time now.

But I think with this Hugging Face, event or scenario that happened people finally got something to hold on to like there was a concrete event that they are now everyone is citing that like on one side it is a bit guys that was a one-off thing it happened once there is a couple of other small things around but that was the one thing and now everyone is making an insanely big deal of that

Yeah, but on the other side, the incidents provided some concrete evidence, which we'll go into, but of problems with misalignments or when agents go rogue, like what could happen and what did happen.

Yeah.

So what I wanted is to put a full on replay of that scenario.

So I have some things written down because honestly there is like a million things that had happened during this and I want to walk you through a bit.

Before we go into that, what is, okay, what was your PDoom and has that changed after reading about the incident?

No, my PDoom is like zero in almost all instances or like 0.1 or something like that, like tiny percentage.

So

you think it's a 0.1% chance we'll be wiped out by AI? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It's not nothing.

Sure, but like a probability of being wiped out by many things exists constantly, a meteor hitting or whatever.

There is some probability that it happens.

This is

man-made, so.

Yeah.

But it's like, but yeah, probably per diem of climate change is higher than per diem of AI.

To

me currently it is, but I think this is like ultra controversial.

So some will be, it is 10%, some will be 50, some will be zero or whatever.

Yeah, there's a nice graph online, which we can post.