NFL Week 4 Picks - Road to 272 Bets - 2026 NFL Season

all right let's start with the thursday night

football game i'd like to apologize to all football fans uh for the next three weeks of primetime games because we're gonna have to suffer through uh the atlanta falcons playing uh it's packers on thursday night this week and then i think it's saints and ravens i forget which one's sunday night which one's monday night but it's gonna be a rough three weeks for primetime games the good news is pedics is back Oh, thank God.

And I'm glad they made the announcement before I recorded tonight.

I was actually probably going to lay the points to the Packers.

But now with Pennix starting, give me the Falcons plus six and a half minus 108.

I wish I did take the plus seven on the Falcons before the announcement was made, but I'll take the plus six and a half.

we can go ahead and throw out the first two games uh in terms of trying to evaluate the falcons offense because i think listen if you've been watching even just red zone and paying attention a little bit to the nfl you know how bad the falcons offense was with those two quarterbacks cooper rush was a complete disaster i still think jack strand might have it i don't think it's fair that they put him in that late in the game with basically all their backups i don't think that was a fair move to him uh but cooper rush was a complete complete disaster um Yeah, their quarterback play was so bad that it's like they couldn't even... like, try to throw the ball, and when they did, it just ended up as a turnover or some really bad play.

So, what we can look at, though, is the Falcons' defense, which actually has gotten off to a strong start to the season.

Ninth in opponent EPA per play, fourth in opponent's success rate.

Now, they are battling a ton of injuries.

Obviously, Pierce is still low because of suspension.

Jalen Walker is going to be out all season.

AJ Terrell, questionable, I believe.

He went down this past week, so they are banged up, but still, they've managed to look pretty good through the first two weeks, at least on that side of the football.

Meanwhile, a little bit concerned about the Packers.

They have not looked good through the first two weeks.

Their defense has kind of been average.

Their offense 28th in EPA per play, 32nd success rate.

Their offensive success rate is actually worse than the Falcons so far, if you can believe it.

uh so i don't i'm not really rushing to lay this many points on the packers i get that it's against the falcons and falcons were disastrous but with pennix uh in a quarterback i think this is a very very different falcons team they should actually be able to use some of their weapons now in the passing game like drake london and kyle pitts uh so give me the six and a half points with the falcons plus six and a half minus 108 on thursday night football and i will live to regret it i don't recommend tailing that bet you may as well go on the opposite side i hate losing thursday night football bets um with this challenge because like just going into the weekend already down oh and one sucks i lost thursday night football last week week one i lost the opener but then did make it up uh with what i guess was thursday night football on the 49ers but um yeah thursday night let's set the tone let's get a win let's take the points at the falcons uh bangles and steelers uh just a heads up i got a lot of total plays uh this week like five or six i think uh and my first one is going to be on this game under 42 and a half minus 107 between the bangles and the steelers uh bangles might be 2-0 but i haven't actually been impressed with them so far especially offensively and this has kind of been the thing in joe burrow's career always a bit of a slow starter they're 22nd in yards per play 20th in epa per play 24th in success rate And the two defenses they've played are the Buccaneers and then obviously the Texans last week.

So Texans defense obviously is supposed to be good, but should have done a lot more against the Buccaneers defense.

They were kind of lucky to get the turnovers that they got in that game.

And then, of course, there's the Steelers offense, which is even worse.

The Steelers now 16 combined offensive points in their first two games.

And those games came against the Falcons and the Patriots.