Tariffs, the Fed, and the Midterms Reshaping Markets with Jason Cole

Now, Jason, I remember probably pre-COVID, public policy was kind of a background issue.

We kept our eyes on it.

It was fascinating, but it maybe wasn't the primary driver of markets.

Now, last couple of years, obviously last year, we had Liberation Day.

That was a big sell-off.

And then at the beginning of this year, we had the Iran war.

That was the big sell off.

So two very clear policy choices which drove markets.

I mean, when you look at the backdrop today, how has the world of policy and investing changed vis-a-vis pre-COVID and pre-GFC even?

Yeah, it's a great question, David.

I think I think the number one shit shift and this isn't an immediate one, but it's happened over time.

And that is the use of executive power, often through declaring emergencies of one order or another.

versus using regular order through Congress to move policy and to shape policy outcomes.

You know, executive action is really efficient.

It's quick.

It's a wave of a magic wand versus a slow, frustrating, messy legislative process.

But it arguably is less durable.

It's arguably prone to backlash, and I think you've seen this over the last few election cycles, where you get reactions to executive actions.

And it's interesting that you mention two events, the GFC and COVID, as sort of precursors to this, because I think both of those events demanded action.

swift action to prevent an economic calamity in the case of GFC, and frankly, also in the case of COVID.

And relying on sort of the slow, deliberate legislative process didn't really work for those two circumstances.

But I think you've seen this movement by both parties when they're in the White House to pursue swift and aggressive executive actions.

And I think in my career, that's probably the biggest shift that we've seen here.

Away from those two events, just a quick follow-up on that.

Is it also frustration with Congress when you are in the executive? Maybe frustration that you haven't got a workable majority in the House or are nowhere near a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.