Bank of England

I think a failure to, to take this opportunity really, really is harmful to them.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin speaking there as markets also price in close to four quarter point ECB hikes and five hikes from the Bank of England over the next twelve months.

President Trump is claiming a Russia-Ukraine energy truce, whilst Ukraine's President Zelenskyy says that no deal has been reached.

According to the US president, the two countries have agreed to stop attacks on each other's energy infrastructure.

"Look."

You may believe it or not, but there was a great, sweat ginger beer case still bound with iron straps under the bed, and it was absolutely running over with fresh, crisp Bank of England pound notes.

[sighs]

"Wonder if it's all, uh...

This is your first exposure to this mysterious guy named Mark Carney.

And what, what's your takeaway? They look, "Well, well, he's a liar." I said, "No, your takeaway is that he got a PhD from Oxford University and he must be a pretty smart guy." And then we talked about how, yes, he was governor of the Bank of Canada, governor of the Bank of England, but he did a really bad job, and he was also chair of Brookfield.

Like, again, I understand what we're trying to do, but all...

What I think we did, um, is that all we did was reaffirm how impressive this guy was and how much more diverse his experience was up, especially in comparison to our guy.

Yeah

... who's been the guy that needs to make the hard decision in a hard time, in a difficult situation.

And, you know, again, man, Mark Carney was a managing director at Goldman Sachs, governor of Central Bank of Canada, governor of the Bank of England, the first non-Briton in the history of the Bank of England to be recruited from abroad, uh, advisor to Boris Johnson, you know, upstairs position at the UN, uh, chair of Brookfield Asset Management on the board of...

I'm not trying to sell the guy.

I think for Mr. Carney to be championing this, he would certainly be promoting something that Canadians could agree to.

As you probably know, or many of your listeners would know, when he was the governor of the Bank of England, he was extremely hostile to the idea of Britain leaving the EU, Brexit as it's known.

And he departed altogether permanently.

from the normal obligation of the head of a central bank to avoid politics and be neutral in those matters, and campaigned strenuously against a vote to leave the EU by Britain.

I think we'll see a dot plot.

You think? [laughs] Look, so the Bank of England as well, that's gonna...

What, y- you're picking no change?

Yeah, the market's firmly in the camp of a hold there.

Um, the, it's a lot softer economy and a lot softer labor market, uh, in the UK, um, so they're not hiking into as much strength as the US would be.

So I'd say the Bank of England will take a, a wait and see approach to, uh, central bank policy this week.

They've still, they've had some pretty high, um, prices for gilts as well for their 10-year bonds recently, though.

Yeah, you've seen some political uncertainty there, uh, which has driven the long end of those UK gilts higher.

But at the same time, they make mistakes as they, as they did in that particular time, and we can't afford to get sucked into it and suffer the same consequences." Now, and so it was then that he started these discussions, uh, and, and talking about European conglomerations, the European Union, et cetera, and, and the idea about small powers, middle powers as he calls them, uh, getting together not to try to dominate some of the major powers, but s- ba- basically cover their butts economically, which made all sorts of sense.

Uh, he made these same sorts of comments when he was, uh, the governor of the Bank of England, uh, because he saw some of the stuff going on with Brexit and of course how isolated nations can really be vulnerable to these sorts of things.

So as The Wall Street Journal reports, uh, Carney, as we know, uh, had left those two positions, uh, had a number of different positions, uh, with the United Nations and with other unions.

Uh, and it v- eventually re- ran for the Li- Liberal leadership, became the prime minister.

Odds now favour a 25 basis point increase after Friday's CPI print.

The Bank of England follows with a meeting on Thursday, and they are expected to hold rates at 3.75%.

The Bank of Japan then follows on Friday, with the market expecting they will raise rates 25 basis points to 1.25%.

Locally, two senior RBA figures are expected to add to the Australian rate picture this week.

Nvidia is putting $10 billion into the IPO.

There's a Bank of England decision this week as well and a Bank of Japan decision on Friday.

76% odds of a rate hike there.

Otherwise, standard economic stuff, things like US retail sales on Wednesday.