Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.
Chapters:
(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off
Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value?
(09:15) The Asian crude buffet
Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet.
(16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs
UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return?
(20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban
Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize.
(30:13) Gasoline and naphtha
Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.
Neil CrosbyHost
June GohPanelist
Abhishek KumarPanelist
