Democrats are a normal polling error away from 54+ Senate seats — or just 50

Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com. On this week’s *Strength In Numbers* podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir show what could happen if the polls are underestimating *either* Democrats *or* Republicans ahead of the November elections. Given Democrats’ edge in most key Senate races today, we ask: How big would the miss need to be for Republicans to keep their majority? What about in the House? And how would these hypothetical misses compare to historical misses? *This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.* Here are the key timestamps from our podcast this week: **00:00** Three rules for reading the polls **03:05** The “named congressional ballot” and what it says about the House **19:53** Internal polls, candidate quality, and the Senate **25:29** What if the polls are wrong? Senate scenarios **43:48** The House under a big polling miss Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week! **As a reminder,** paid subscribers to *Strength In Numbers* get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com. You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, **please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!** You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so: If you’re a reader of *Strength in Numbers* and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com. And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe