A Civilization-Ending Iran Deadline
Markets struggle to price an irrational conflict
The Money Café with Alan Kohler
Apr 8, 2026 · 47 min · 19 segments
On the Money Café this week, Alan Kohler and Stephen Mayne discuss developments in the Middle East involving Donald Trump and Iran, run through the upcoming AGM mini-season, examine the situation at…
Stephen MayneHost
Alan KohlerHost
And this is the dichotomy we're in this morning, Alan, because we're sitting here at 8 o'clock and Trump is going to end a civilisation at 10 o'clock when his deadline, the fourth deadline, expires, after which he's going to blow Iran back into the Stone Age.

this was a post on Truth Social last night, and he said that he hopes it doesn't happen, but it probably will.

So the stable genius is about as mad as ever, I think, in his pronouncements over the last week, starting with that 20-minute address.

we're learning in the last week what a catastrophe his election was for America, really.

Where's the stabilisation? Where's the sensible voice around him? So Deputy President J.D.


So the market's obviously not pricing in a wipeout of Iran's power plants and bridges and then a respondent wipeout of all Middle Eastern gas and oil facilities.

Nor are they pricing in... a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz because the price of West Texas crude, as I noted on the news last night, went to $115 a barrel yesterday, which was a new record high, and a premium to Brent, which is very rare.


That's flipped, and apparently the reason for that is because West Texas is being used by speculators as the main vehicle for speculating about the war in Iran.

And this is the dichotomy we're in this morning, Alan, because we're sitting here at 8 o'clock and Trump is going to end a civilisation at 10 o'clock when his deadline, the fourth deadline, expires, after which he's going to blow Iran back into the Stone Age.

this was a post on Truth Social last night, and he said that he hopes it doesn't happen, but it probably will.

So the stable genius is about as mad as ever, I think, in his pronouncements over the last week, starting with that 20-minute address.

we're learning in the last week what a catastrophe his election was for America, really.

Where's the stabilisation? Where's the sensible voice around him? So Deputy President J.D.


So the market's obviously not pricing in a wipeout of Iran's power plants and bridges and then a respondent wipeout of all Middle Eastern gas and oil facilities.

Nor are they pricing in... a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz because the price of West Texas crude, as I noted on the news last night, went to $115 a barrel yesterday, which was a new record high, and a premium to Brent, which is very rare.


That's flipped, and apparently the reason for that is because West Texas is being used by speculators as the main vehicle for speculating about the war in Iran.
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A Civilization-Ending Iran Deadline
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