Macro Dirt and Fast Money

So, you know, we had done a good job.

If you're a Fast Money fan or if you listen to Tony – People realize that we've all been bullish gold for very similar reasons and maybe some different reasons.

And obviously, that sort of all came to a head about six or seven months ago when gold had this sort of hyperbolic move to the upside on the back of a couple different things.

Obviously, since December, it's been a tough slog.

for a myriad of different reasons.

I think one of the biggest reasons is the fact that this Fed has gotten itself sort of in a hawkish posture.

Obviously, the dollar's done pretty well.

Rates going higher historically has been a bit of a headwind for gold.

And I think what's going on in the Middle East, although if you think about it, you would think it's to be bullish of gold, but you know there's a very cogent argument made that what's going on in the middle east is actually bearish so you have a lot of things to sort of throw in the mix i did not think we'd back and fill as much as we have but to the extent that anybody cares if you look at a chart we sort of traded down to broke the 200-day moving average to the downside now appears as though we're starting to inflect back through it.

What I have said for a while, TG, and I believe this, I don't think the central bank buying has abated.

I think that's going to pick up again at some point.

By the way, that had been really the backbone of this entire bullish gold story, that central banks were buying gold for the last four years at an historic rate.

I think at some point, our bond market deteriorating, the Japanese bond market deteriorating, dollar-yen deteriorating, as much as it is a headwind now, I think at some point it's going to flip and become a tailwind.

And maybe we're starting to see... signs of that now.

But when it happens, I think it's going to happen in a meaningful way.

So I think the highs that we saw this past December, I think that's when the high was.

I think at some point over the next six to nine months, we take that out.

And we take it out in ways that I don't think a lot of people see coming.

Now, I'm in the minority on that one, by the way.

I don't think a lot of people feel that way.

I think they believe the bloom is off the rose and there's no real argument to be long gold.

But if you sort of look around, especially What's going on in Japan? I mean, they have a problem, TG.

And I know you talk about that dollar yen as we're sitting here, I think it's north of 163 or either side of 163.

So you have a Japanese bond market that is trading depending on where you look at the curve at historic levels.

You have a yen.