Episode 77: Most Unusual 2026 Candidates and Other Midterm Superlatives

Before we get into the candidate superlatives, let's do some headlines.

Jacob?

Hawaii Democrat Ed Case decisively beat back a progressive challenge from state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole in a primary that flew well under the radar this cycle, despite the strong Democratic lean of Hawaii's 1st District.

Case is among the most moderate, potentially even conservative, Democrats in Congress, and Keohokalole ran both to his left and as a generational challenger.

He is 30 years younger than Case.

But national progressive groups and donors never really invested in this district or the race.

In case one, 59 to 37 percent.

In Michigan, progressive and former health official Abdul El-Sayed clinched the Democratic nomination for Senate in a closer than expected race against Congresswoman Haley Stevens.

El-Sayed won by a single point, 48.5 to 47.5 percent, a more modest win than progressives were hoping for, especially considering some of the polling leading up to the primary had El-Sayed up by double digits.

He will face former Congressman Mike Rogers in the only Senate race we have currently rated as a toss up.

Despite significant

allegations of domestic abuse and calls for him to drop out of the race, Republican Congressman Max Miller is continuing with his reelection bid in Ohio's 7th District, which stretches from the Cleveland suburbs south to Columbus.

With an inside elections baseline of R plus 10, this district typically votes for Republicans, but Democrats have a credible candidate in Brian Poindexter, and these aren't typical conditions.

We just moved the race from likely Republican to lean Republican, but now that he's sticking around, we will probably need to move that to something much more competitive.

Adding to the growing list of progressive wins is the co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, William Lawrence, who won the Democratic primary for Michigan's 7th District, another toss-up, and will face incumbent Tom Barrett, the Republican, also in Michigan and Detroit, progressive state representative Donovan McKinney, narrowly ousted, eccentric Congressman Sri Tanidar, who had been supported by AIPAC and cryptocurrency groups in his reelection campaign in the 13th district.

Of course, last week was not all good news for progressives.

Missouri's Cori Bush was defeated by incumbent Wesley Bell in the state's first district, receiving less than 37% of the vote to Bell's 59%.

And Representative Marie Glusenkamp-Perez emerged victorious in a crowded primary, including progressive Brett Henrich, and will face state Senate Minority Leader John Braun.

I know Republicans were very excited about that challenge from the left to the Congresswoman, but this race was different than a couple years ago.

Now, the two Democratic candidates combined for majority of the vote in the primary, and those Democrats who supported Henrik are not going to be voting for a Republican in the general election, at least the vast majority of them are not.

So we do have it rated as a toss-up, but this is the type of cycle and the environment where Glusenkamp Perez could survive.

And one other Washington race to put on people's radar.

Well, it should already be on your radar if you read both Intra's story about the independents running for Congress across the country and my story about the dark money web funneling money to a super PAC supporting a group of those independents.

But in the fifth congressional district, things have tightened up over the second place spot between Democrat Carmela Conroy and independent firefighter Nate Powell.

Conroy leads by 3.4%, 19.6% to 16.2%, with only about 80% of the vote left.