Bear Brief, 25 Sep 2026
Sep 25, 2026 · 41 min · 13 segments
Diesel SHORTAGE | National INTEL | CAPITULATION | Bear Brief 25SEP26 \--- Don’t choose a permanent response to a temporary problem: DIAL '988' to get help. Patreon Link…
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Sep 25, 2026 · 41 min · 13 segments
Diesel SHORTAGE | National INTEL | CAPITULATION | Bear Brief 25SEP26 \--- Don’t choose a permanent response to a temporary problem: DIAL '988' to get help. Patreon Link…
There's talk among the current administration of banning diesel exports.
Here, let's get you leveled out right there.
Diesel just hit $6.51 nationally, but of course that's just an average, with California pushing $8.43 a gallon.
Costs extra to be gay, don't it? As for gasoline, that's sitting around $4.48 a gallon, a post-July record.
So diesel export ban sounds good at first since keeping the fuel stateside means more Americans who could really use a break for their wallets right about now, except that's not really how it works.
Diesel and gasoline come out of the same refining process.
So that means that if one gets throttled, the other chokes too.
Analysts think maybe prices dip for a few weeks, maybe, and mostly around the Gulf coast where it actually gets made.
Gigantic asterisk there.
Does it actually
all get made there? Whose oil are we refining there? Do we have the infrastructure? Are we going to build it at Venezuela? We're going to get so many barrels of crude out of Venezuela.
Oh, just kidding.
No, we're not.
It's very, very temporary, said one S&P Global Energy head.
But here's the issue.
Refiners can't just stockpile diesel forever.
And once storage is full, they have to actually cut production, not just of diesel, but of gasoline and jet fuel, too.
Luckily, we don't need a lot of jet fuel.
It's not like we have conflicts in South America, and the Middle East, and Europe, and Africa, and skirmishes in the Indo-Pacom, and it's fine.
Who needs jet fuel? It's whatever.
Meh.
Meh.
Everybody say it with me.
Meh.
Meh.
There's talk among the current administration of banning diesel exports.
Here, let's get you leveled out right there.
Diesel just hit $6.51 nationally, but of course that's just an average, with California pushing $8.43 a gallon.
Costs extra to be gay, don't it? As for gasoline, that's sitting around $4.48 a gallon, a post-July record.
So diesel export ban sounds good at first since keeping the fuel stateside means more Americans who could really use a break for their wallets right about now, except that's not really how it works.
Diesel and gasoline come out of the same refining process.
So that means that if one gets throttled, the other chokes too.
Analysts think maybe prices dip for a few weeks, maybe, and mostly around the Gulf coast where it actually gets made.
Gigantic asterisk there.
Does it actually
all get made there? Whose oil are we refining there? Do we have the infrastructure? Are we going to build it at Venezuela? We're going to get so many barrels of crude out of Venezuela.
Oh, just kidding.
No, we're not.
It's very, very temporary, said one S&P Global Energy head.
But here's the issue.
Refiners can't just stockpile diesel forever.
And once storage is full, they have to actually cut production, not just of diesel, but of gasoline and jet fuel, too.
Luckily, we don't need a lot of jet fuel.
It's not like we have conflicts in South America, and the Middle East, and Europe, and Africa, and skirmishes in the Indo-Pacom, and it's fine.
Who needs jet fuel? It's whatever.
Meh.
Meh.
Everybody say it with me.
Meh.
Meh.
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