State of Tel Aviv, Israel Podcast
Jul 17, 2026 · 51 min · 10 segments
It is great to have Ya’akov Katz back from his holiday in the Canadian wilderness. He is just in time to help unpack and decipher the political chaos that has intensified in Israel in recent weeks…
Vivian BerkovichHost
Okay, I want to start now, Yakov, with Iran, just because we have to, because last night was pretty crazy.

We're receiving initial reports of what we think were the targets that were hit, and there was also, I don't know if you caught it, I was up pretty late last night, but there was a kind of news blast flash of President Trump being rushed on a super urgent basis through the streets of Washington and a kind of gathering of many very top administration officials to discuss what I assume were probably the hits on Iran, and I'd love you to touch at some point, if you would.

There's talk, there's speculation from some very smart people about the fact that Lindsey Graham's face was on a poster during the past week in Iran, along with many other people, President Trump included, and they had red triangles on their heads, and the Iranian regime has been saying nonstop that they're targets to be killed.

We had the drama around President Trump's Air Force One plane him switching at the last minute from the one that the Qataris gave him to the regular plane for security reasons we know now.

So there's a lot going on at once, and I would expect that every single person whose picture was on those placards in Iran has significantly beefed up security now.

But it's a big kind of messy ball I've just thrown to you, but I'd like you to catch it and make some sense of it.

So kind of last night in Iran, what's going on in the administration, and is there something more than nothing to those death threats from the Iranian regime targeting a number of people whose photos were on placards? And which I have to say, Lindsey Graham said, put on Twitter, "At least they used a good photo of me." Yakov, we got a lot going on, and we're going to start with Iran, and last night was a very busy night.


It's a very strange situation, especially because Israel has not been attacked at all.
Well, I think that the Iranians are obviously trying to improve their negotiation ability, right? And they're gambling with this belief that Donald Trump does not want to resume all-out hostilities, does not want to go back to a high-intensity conflict, wants to keep things under a certain threshold, and therefore, they think that by attacking here, they're putting the pressure on Trump, getting him to respond, and doing this all around the Strait of Hormuz will put the pressure that will get Trump to eventually himself capitulate because of the cost of the rise in the cost of oil, the upcoming midterms, et cetera.
They don't want Israel to respond because they want to keep the conflict focused just on the Strait of Hormuz, not give Israel or anyone else for that matter an opening to attack targets across Iran, regime targets, military targets, the nuclear infrastructure that we've seen in satellite footage they're already rebuilding.
They want to keep it isolated to the Strait of Hormuz and keep it more of an economic/military issue, but really not get back to a full-on war.
So Israel is watching what's happening, is preparing, is at a heightened state of alert, I'd say, because it's al- it could at any moment, we could see a couple ballistic missiles come our way.

So your comments seem to suggest that there is, among the kind of decision-making echelon in Iran, that there is some kind of consensus, agreement.

And I'd like you to just kind of comment briefly on the possibility that what we're seeing in terms of the way that the IRGC is reacting, or seems to be reacting or acting, that they may actually be kind of running things and making decisions much more so than Pezeshkian or Ghalibaf or any of the sort of senior political leaders.

Okay, I want to start now, Yakov, with Iran, just because we have to, because last night was pretty crazy.

We're receiving initial reports of what we think were the targets that were hit, and there was also, I don't know if you caught it, I was up pretty late last night, but there was a kind of news blast flash of President Trump being rushed on a super urgent basis through the streets of Washington and a kind of gathering of many very top administration officials to discuss what I assume were probably the hits on Iran, and I'd love you to touch at some point, if you would.

There's talk, there's speculation from some very smart people about the fact that Lindsey Graham's face was on a poster during the past week in Iran, along with many other people, President Trump included, and they had red triangles on their heads, and the Iranian regime has been saying nonstop that they're targets to be killed.

We had the drama around President Trump's Air Force One plane him switching at the last minute from the one that the Qataris gave him to the regular plane for security reasons we know now.

So there's a lot going on at once, and I would expect that every single person whose picture was on those placards in Iran has significantly beefed up security now.

But it's a big kind of messy ball I've just thrown to you, but I'd like you to catch it and make some sense of it.

So kind of last night in Iran, what's going on in the administration, and is there something more than nothing to those death threats from the Iranian regime targeting a number of people whose photos were on placards? And which I have to say, Lindsey Graham said, put on Twitter, "At least they used a good photo of me." Yakov, we got a lot going on, and we're going to start with Iran, and last night was a very busy night.


It's a very strange situation, especially because Israel has not been attacked at all.
Well, I think that the Iranians are obviously trying to improve their negotiation ability, right? And they're gambling with this belief that Donald Trump does not want to resume all-out hostilities, does not want to go back to a high-intensity conflict, wants to keep things under a certain threshold, and therefore, they think that by attacking here, they're putting the pressure on Trump, getting him to respond, and doing this all around the Strait of Hormuz will put the pressure that will get Trump to eventually himself capitulate because of the cost of the rise in the cost of oil, the upcoming midterms, et cetera.
They don't want Israel to respond because they want to keep the conflict focused just on the Strait of Hormuz, not give Israel or anyone else for that matter an opening to attack targets across Iran, regime targets, military targets, the nuclear infrastructure that we've seen in satellite footage they're already rebuilding.
They want to keep it isolated to the Strait of Hormuz and keep it more of an economic/military issue, but really not get back to a full-on war.
So Israel is watching what's happening, is preparing, is at a heightened state of alert, I'd say, because it's al- it could at any moment, we could see a couple ballistic missiles come our way.

So your comments seem to suggest that there is, among the kind of decision-making echelon in Iran, that there is some kind of consensus, agreement.

And I'd like you to just kind of comment briefly on the possibility that what we're seeing in terms of the way that the IRGC is reacting, or seems to be reacting or acting, that they may actually be kind of running things and making decisions much more so than Pezeshkian or Ghalibaf or any of the sort of senior political leaders.
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