Northern Spin – Season 6 – Episode 1: Can Brand Burnham Beat Reform?

So why has the Northern Spin podcast returned? Two words, Makerfield by-election.

That's because by-election's one word.

If you're asking, a victory for Greater Manchester's mayor, Andy Burnham, on June 18th in the Makerfield by-election will, in all probability, see him handed the keys to 10 Downing Street and replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

I think it's the most important by-election in my lifetime.

From Labour's point of view, I think it's Burnham or bust.

Win it, and Labour's most popular politician, according to all the polls, can claim he's got what it takes to beat Reform, but a Reform victory could add growing momentum to the feeling that Nigel Farage will end up in Number 10.

Frank, you've known Andy Burnham for 30 years, so you're better placed than anyone to answer this question.

How important do you think the Makerfield by-election is to Andy Burnham, to the Labour Party, and to the country as a whole?

I think it's hugely important to, to all three.

Uh, as far as Andy Burnham's concerned, in a sense, this is shit or bust because he's basically put on the line his future political career in a constituency that, uh, ordinarily you would say would be a relatively safe Labour seat.

But in the current environment, I think, again, fair to say that it's marginal, and it's considered to be a challenging seat for Labour to win.

So, okay, Andy goes back to be Greater Manchester mayor if he doesn't win the seat, but he's a bit of a busted flush.

He's damaged.

He's not gonna be able to come back nationally.

He's not gonna be able to go for a second seat, I wouldn't have thought, in this parliament.

And at the age of 55, his time is now or never, I think.

So hugely important for Andy, hugely significant for his future prospects.

For the Labour Party, a, a bit of a crossroads because they will probably see Andy Burnham, uh, rightly, as their best retail politician.

If you look at all the polls, you will see that the most popular Labour politician, in fact, I think the most popular politician at the moment in the country is Andy Burnham.

So they will be looking at this by-election and thinking, "Well, if Andy Burnham can't beat Reform, who can?" And that leads you on to your final point of, as far as the country is concerned, how important.

Well, I think if Andy Burnham wins, it indicates that Reform hasn't necessarily got that juggernaut momentum that takes them automatically and inevitably to government in three years' time, and that there are populists on the other side of the political spectrum who can challenge them effectively.

If they win it though, then it would suggest that Nigel Farage will have the keys to Number 10 maybe before 2029.

Absolutely.

Uh, absolutely, and that's the reason why we've brought the Northern Spin podcast back.