"Let 'Em Take Out Los Angeles," 27 Days Out

We're less than a month away from the election, and it's been a little bit since we've taken a look at the state of things overall.

I know that on the show, I try to give you context for these things as we go, where we talk about one department doing X or why the president is focusing on issue Y.

But sometimes you just got to stop and take a 30,000 foot look to get the big picture, because sometimes the context is the story.

So bear with me.

We're going to run through a lot of numbers on this, but I promise they will make sense and it won't feel like I'm just throwing a bunch of loose change at you.

Let's start here where things are at in Congress.

In the House, about 49% of Americans say they're going to vote for a Democrat in November compared to about 41% who say they're voting for a Republican.

The odds of Democrats winning the House is 75% right now, according to numbers from the polling firm Decision Desk HQ.

That is not just what's called a political wave.

It's a tsunami.

And as with any wave, it's not just the crash, but the undertow that'll pull you back into the riptide.

In the House for Republicans, that undertow is how many seats they stand to lose.

Earlier this year, it looked like Democrats and Republicans might just swap the majority.

leaving Democrats with a narrow lead somewhere between three and five seats.

What that means practically is that Democrats couldn't lose very many votes on any given bill on their side before having to cross the aisle, then giving a lot more power to either more extreme members of their own party, whether that's extreme to the right or to the left, so that everyone was happy and nobody would vote no.

Well, as of the end of September, the Cook Political Report, one of the best congressional polling trackers in the country, they're now saying that Democrats are expected to have a 15-seat majority when the dust settles after the election.

In the House, a majority is 218 seats.

Cook is talking about a Democratic majority around 230 to 235.

It's the kind of power in the House that a party with a real plan to get things done, that wants to seek accountability like Democrats have said they want to do, can do work with, and that scares the president.

Here he is speaking in Oklahoma last week.

Pretend I'm running, please.

Just pretend.

Because I am in the ballot.

And if we don't win, they'll end up impeaching me.

That's not a guy who is confident about his future.

We're less than a month away from the election, and it's been a little bit since we've taken a look at the state of things overall.

I know that on the show, I try to give you context for these things as we go, where we talk about one department doing X or why the president is focusing on issue Y.

But sometimes you just got to stop and take a 30,000 foot look to get the big picture, because sometimes the context is the story.

So bear with me.

We're going to run through a lot of numbers on this, but I promise they will make sense and it won't feel like I'm just throwing a bunch of loose change at you.

Let's start here where things are at in Congress.

In the House, about 49% of Americans say they're going to vote for a Democrat in November compared to about 41% who say they're voting for a Republican.

The odds of Democrats winning the House is 75% right now, according to numbers from the polling firm Decision Desk HQ.

That is not just what's called a political wave.

It's a tsunami.

And as with any wave, it's not just the crash, but the undertow that'll pull you back into the riptide.

In the House for Republicans, that undertow is how many seats they stand to lose.

Earlier this year, it looked like Democrats and Republicans might just swap the majority.

leaving Democrats with a narrow lead somewhere between three and five seats.

What that means practically is that Democrats couldn't lose very many votes on any given bill on their side before having to cross the aisle, then giving a lot more power to either more extreme members of their own party, whether that's extreme to the right or to the left, so that everyone was happy and nobody would vote no.

Well, as of the end of September, the Cook Political Report, one of the best congressional polling trackers in the country, they're now saying that Democrats are expected to have a 15-seat majority when the dust settles after the election.

In the House, a majority is 218 seats.

Cook is talking about a Democratic majority around 230 to 235.

It's the kind of power in the House that a party with a real plan to get things done, that wants to seek accountability like Democrats have said they want to do, can do work with, and that scares the president.

Here he is speaking in Oklahoma last week.

Pretend I'm running, please.

Just pretend.

Because I am in the ballot.

And if we don't win, they'll end up impeaching me.

That's not a guy who is confident about his future.