Making Sense of Geopolitical Risk

I did want to make sure we get to that.

These

supply chains, these, you know, where the global trading system, right, where in many ways the driver of the late 20th, early 21st century global trading system in the United States has fundamentally changed its approach, right? But just as the U.S.

is kind of going back to the future in a way, right, in terms of – Pursuing a trade policy and imposing tariffs that we haven't seen anything like it since the 1930s in terms of just the overall global tariff rate.

The rest of the world isn't following suit.

Last year was a record-breaking year in terms of trade deals.

Countries like India have been inking trade deals left and right.

The EU brought to closure a trade deal that had been in the works for years with Latin America, with South American countries, Mercosur.

So the U.S. may be pulling back from trade, but the rest of the world isn't.

And that's going to have, I mean, that has real world effects today.

But I think over time, that kind of rewiring of trade, of supply chains will have an impact.

Now, there's upside opportunities for sure, but there's also a lot of risk built into that as well.

And you've written a lot about this.

You know, this isn't just U.S.-China or the war in Ukraine or Iran-War.

Let's zoom out.

There's really this rewiring that's happening.

You've written a lot about it with the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Is there something you think investors are underappreciating around this rewiring? We talk a lot about how it could drive inflation, how there are more supply-side chalks.

Is there something we're missing here?

I don't think, I mean, in my conversations with clients, investors, it's not, I might say there's a pretty sophisticated understanding of these changes as they are, as they happen day to day.

I think the issue that I find is maybe underappreciated, but I think it's, to be fair, it's underappreciated by all of us, because it's hard to see in the moment, is kind of how lasting this restructuring is going to be.

I think sometimes there's a sense of, well, this is sort of a moment, and then we're going to go back to where things were before.

And I just don't see that happening.

Like, I don't see the U.S. fundamentally changing its approach to trade from here in the near term or the medium term, right? I think...

Joe Biden was the first U.S. president since 1930, the 1930s, to not pursue a trade deal anywhere.