Oct 17, 2026 · 53 min · 11 segments
Republicans are facing a difficult 2026 midterm election, and even traditionally conservative states like Texas, Kansas, and Iowa are becoming competitive. But if Democrats win, will it be because…
And Democrats, if they win, which I think it's pretty certain at this point that they will win the House and there's a good chance the Senate, I think, is trending toward Democrats, although it's still very much a toss up and it could go either way.
Democrats should not misread this as a mandate or an endorsement of their party, because I think this is more of a sort of pox on both of their houses.
I was talking with someone yesterday and they were like, maybe there's a couple of states where he is still above water.
But you would be surprised by just the breadth of polling that has him very underwater in very red states.
Obviously, there's some candidate quality issues going both ways that are affecting some of those races.
But you have districts that Trump carried by double digits and states that he carried by double digits that are in play.
And so we're seeing just a I don't think that this is a realignment of politics, but it's more reflective of just where Trump's numbers are nationally.
And that's because of affordability, because of the economy and because of the war in Iran.
And in our correspondence, Jessica, you mentioned that you were raised Southern Baptist and thought about the intersection of faith and politics quite a bit, something that you're interested in.
And I'm wondering, as we're moving into this midterm, and we've talked with some people about that.
But how do you imagine religious voters or how do you imagine this affecting? Do you think that 81% of white evangelicals that have voted for Trump, will that be consistent? Or do you imagine seeing changes there? Or is it just going to be more of the people in the middle that are just so tired of what's happening right now?
I think I have a real question of whether sort of those white evangelicals show up right now.
And Democrats, if they win, which I think it's pretty certain at this point that they will win the House and there's a good chance the Senate, I think, is trending toward Democrats, although it's still very much a toss up and it could go either way.
Democrats should not misread this as a mandate or an endorsement of their party, because I think this is more of a sort of pox on both of their houses.
I was talking with someone yesterday and they were like, maybe there's a couple of states where he is still above water.
But you would be surprised by just the breadth of polling that has him very underwater in very red states.
Obviously, there's some candidate quality issues going both ways that are affecting some of those races.
But you have districts that Trump carried by double digits and states that he carried by double digits that are in play.
And so we're seeing just a I don't think that this is a realignment of politics, but it's more reflective of just where Trump's numbers are nationally.
And that's because of affordability, because of the economy and because of the war in Iran.
And in our correspondence, Jessica, you mentioned that you were raised Southern Baptist and thought about the intersection of faith and politics quite a bit, something that you're interested in.
And I'm wondering, as we're moving into this midterm, and we've talked with some people about that.
But how do you imagine religious voters or how do you imagine this affecting? Do you think that 81% of white evangelicals that have voted for Trump, will that be consistent? Or do you imagine seeing changes there? Or is it just going to be more of the people in the middle that are just so tired of what's happening right now?
I think I have a real question of whether sort of those white evangelicals show up right now.
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