Lula re-elected, Flávio on the run

As expected, Flavio Bolsonaro did not acknowledge the results.

He says that they were unacceptable, that because of the two-hour extension, which his campaign also requested, the election was shameful.

And then also as expected, Slightly expected, he fled the country.

So there's a lot to unpack here.

On the next day after the election, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued a ruling, ordering Flávio Bolsonaro to surrender his passport and say that he could not leave the country.

He had 24 hours to comply, and within those 24 hours, he escaped.

Now, we still don't know exactly through which route, officially, The Argentine government says he crossed the Tancredo Neves International Bridge in Foz do Iguaçu, from where he took a plane to Ecuador and then Miami.

There are other suspicions that he might have flown from Brasília to...

the outskirts of Buenos Aires.

Then from there, he would have gone to Puerto Iguazú, which is the Argentine side of the Iguazú Falls.

Now, one thing seems clear.

He had the help of the Argentine government.

And he had at least the acquiescence of Washington because he was given a humanitarian state permit as soon as he landed.

Now, it is still uncertain whether this was just an escape with, let's say, the benevolent eyes of Washington and Buenos Aires, whether this was an extraction.

in which case it would be a far bigger diplomatic problem between Brazil, Argentina and Brazil and the US.

Yeah, I mean, I think the idea for the Trump administration to let him come to the United States is the option of creating a government in exile, which is not going to happen because Flavio himself realized that and changed the statement that he issued three times and eventually took off the title of the elected president of Brazil to the leader of the opposition in Brazil.

And I think Trump wants to keep him in his back pocket in the United States so that if he needs to mobilize his support for his campaign against Brazil, he can do that.

But it seems that Trump realizes that this immediate battle has been lost.

And so therefore, there's not going to be an attempt to legitimize Flavio as the president-elect of the country.

And there'll be a de facto recognizing of the election results.

And then we'll see what the next step is for the Trump administration.

Flavio has not been defeated in this regard.

I think he's trying to – and I imagine he and his brother will be trying – and allies will be trying to guarantee their space within the Trump administration.

But after the – historic defeat of the Republicans on Tuesday of next week, I think Flavio is going to be even in a more difficult position because Trump is going to be scrambling to regain legitimacy and support.

And I don't think an incursion in Brazil will be a higher priority for him at that point.