10% Chance AI Kills Us All

hey everyone welcome to episode 136 of bulls versus bears where we will um we will focus on the apparently the 10 chance that ai will kill us all um and you know there was a bit a bit of a response this week uh to a bit of a back and forth um between some ex-anthropic and open ai and some existing open a um and open ai and anthropic um developers and senior staff, but given Trump and oil prices and everything have dominated the headlines and we were smart enough to be ahead of that last week, we thought we would talk about this in a reasonable manner rather than the fairly alarmist manner that has been out there.

Really, I didn't have to change much this week.

Oil bond yields higher.

And that is the main headline.

There have been a couple others, but the three numbers that matter this week, this is the same chart from last week, and it was $93 in crude oil.

Now it's $103.

WTI we're looking at there.

The second number is the US 10-year Treasury yields are closing in on 5%.

That chart there on the... on your screen and for those of you who are just listening this is only it basically hasn't been to five percent or through five percent um since 2007 um so nearly night well 19 odd years um it did briefly bust through um a couple of years ago but went straight back down again uh but these yields are i mean this is a super super critical um level um and um you know we and as we sort of said last week You know, these are the rate hike predictions and where it hits that 50% line from last week, where I think myself and you guys agreed it was ridiculous that it was a blip with the coin.

It's back at 73 now for the PPI numbers.

And the third one, 5,000.

That's how much the vote bribe is, or you can probably all correlate 1.2 trillion.

I'm not entirely sure what Trump's, you know, My main thinking is around this, but he's promised $5,000 per adult.

I don't know where he's getting the $1.2 trillion from because I think the $1 trillion in debt that from 39 to above 40 was done in 10 weeks.

and he still hasn't paid the Doge savings, the tariff refunds, or any of the other ones that he's promised.

So this, I think he's promised a $5,000, a $2,000, and a $5,000, and then another $5,000.

Not one of them has been written up in cheques so far.