Jun 17, 2026 · 49 min · 13 segments
For Episode 3 of Barrels to Bytes, Ben Dell, Lloyd Byrne, and John Ordway are joined by Dwight Anderson, Founder and Managing Partner of Ospraie Management. The series brings together perspectives…
Dwight AndersonGuest
Ben DellHost
Lloyd ByrneHost
John OrdwayHost
Can I go back to something you just said? I mean, you talked about 06, 08, the disconnect between commodities, equity markets.
I get asked this a lot on the public v private and energy, which one's better, right? And you would think with an efficient market over time, these disconnects would have gone away, but you still see them.
Why do you think they exist in a market with so much information? And where do you see those disconnects today between commodity markets, equity markets, public versus private, and what's driving those? So
it's the nature of the capital market to arbitrage it and a tremendous change in the duration of the capital and what is the marginal price setting mechanism in the public markets.
And so we used to have a company capital was massively relevant to the price setting mechanism for spaces.
And they are constantly focused on, is there an inflection point catalyst in the next two quarters? And if there's not, they can't, if it's looking for a long positive, they can't own it.
And so unless someone's actually willing to step in and take that company private, and has the ability and management, then the price doesn't matter.
And the price in the short term, and so the disconnects in the public market, because it's being set so much as in generic ETFs, which doesn't really care, And then the price setting mechanism isn't value driven, it's catalyst driven.
So now we think there's greater disconnects than ever between the medium to long-term fundamental pricing and the value of these stocks at times, because unless someone will step in, okay, on a private side or management to close that, the value can completely disconnect.
I think the duration debate, the market has become so short-term if you have long-duration capital and you can actually take that position and hold the position.
But that also goes to the comment you were making earlier in the day when we were talking about managing volatility for your investors and what they actually want.
Can you frame that? Because I think it's important to understand some of that short-term duration bias, I think, has come with a desire to have less volatility.
And it's something that we've had to evolve the nature of the capital that we invest in how and where we trade in that at Tiger, but then also at the first, you know, nine years of Osprey is, you know, we were trying to target north of 20% net returns.
And so we were able to achieve that in our first five years each year, but it came with a material amount of risk and concentration risk and some illiquidity and duration.
And the nature of the investor base was much more high net worth or absolute return focused.
As hedge funds grew in size and institutional capital came in, but especially with some of the blow ups of late 90s and then 08, that capital is fixated on limiting your drawdowns.
And so we've had to change the nature of our capital and our risk taking so that currently in our commodity fund, we are much shorter term than we were, much more diverse.
Can I go back to something you just said? I mean, you talked about 06, 08, the disconnect between commodities, equity markets.
I get asked this a lot on the public v private and energy, which one's better, right? And you would think with an efficient market over time, these disconnects would have gone away, but you still see them.
Why do you think they exist in a market with so much information? And where do you see those disconnects today between commodity markets, equity markets, public versus private, and what's driving those? So
it's the nature of the capital market to arbitrage it and a tremendous change in the duration of the capital and what is the marginal price setting mechanism in the public markets.
And so we used to have a company capital was massively relevant to the price setting mechanism for spaces.
And they are constantly focused on, is there an inflection point catalyst in the next two quarters? And if there's not, they can't, if it's looking for a long positive, they can't own it.
And so unless someone's actually willing to step in and take that company private, and has the ability and management, then the price doesn't matter.
And the price in the short term, and so the disconnects in the public market, because it's being set so much as in generic ETFs, which doesn't really care, And then the price setting mechanism isn't value driven, it's catalyst driven.
So now we think there's greater disconnects than ever between the medium to long-term fundamental pricing and the value of these stocks at times, because unless someone will step in, okay, on a private side or management to close that, the value can completely disconnect.
I think the duration debate, the market has become so short-term if you have long-duration capital and you can actually take that position and hold the position.
But that also goes to the comment you were making earlier in the day when we were talking about managing volatility for your investors and what they actually want.
Can you frame that? Because I think it's important to understand some of that short-term duration bias, I think, has come with a desire to have less volatility.
And it's something that we've had to evolve the nature of the capital that we invest in how and where we trade in that at Tiger, but then also at the first, you know, nine years of Osprey is, you know, we were trying to target north of 20% net returns.
And so we were able to achieve that in our first five years each year, but it came with a material amount of risk and concentration risk and some illiquidity and duration.
And the nature of the investor base was much more high net worth or absolute return focused.
As hedge funds grew in size and institutional capital came in, but especially with some of the blow ups of late 90s and then 08, that capital is fixated on limiting your drawdowns.
And so we've had to change the nature of our capital and our risk taking so that currently in our commodity fund, we are much shorter term than we were, much more diverse.
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