AllianceBernstein

Reinforcing that concern, some economists worry that borrowing costs that continue to climb may do less today to slow the economy than they have in the past, potentially requiring an even bigger Fed response.

The AI boom could provide kindling as more of the benefits could ripple out to other parts of the economy, said Eric Winograd, an economist at Alliance Bernstein.

Everything that gets put into building a data center has to be built somewhere, Winograd said.

So you get this sort of idea of a filtering through the supply chain, a filtering into other areas of the economy that would broaden the base of expansion.

What's up everybody? My name is Demetri Kofinas, and you're listening to Hidden Forces, a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs, and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, the chief investment strategist at AllianceBernstein, where he advises family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors on long horizon portfolio construction and multi-asset strategy.

Inigo is also the author of a recently published paper titled The Hundred Year Portfolio: A State of Mind Rather Than an Allocation, in which he argues that as the investment regimes of the last four decades break down, investors with multi-generational time horizons need to fundamentally rethink how they define diversification, risk management, benchmarking, tax planning, and the governance structures overlaying their portfolios.

By the end of today's conversation, you will have a clearer understanding of why the investment frameworks that worked over the last forty years may be inadequately suited to help investors and portfolio managers navigate the decades ahead, how governance and the psychology of long-term stewardship matter more than any single allocation decision, why purchasing power preservation should replace market benchmarks as the organizing principle for long horizon portfolios, how to think about the differences between risk and uncertainty when investing over long time horizons, and what the shifting macro landscape means for investors navigating a once-in-a-century transition across geopolitical, economic, and technological paradigms.

I mean, Cathie Wood is a friend of mine.

Uh, and early on when she, uh, left AllianceBernstein, she came to my office, and I was very helpful to her.

[clears throat]

And I, and I tell her, I was like, "You are..." And I'm dating myself.

Learn more about our show at insightfulinvestor.org. Today's guest is Peter Kraus, co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Aperture Investors, an alternative investment manager with six point seven billion in assets under management as of the end of June.

Uh, Peter previously served as CEO of AllianceBernstein and earlier was co-head of Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Uh, in today's conversation, we're gonna discuss incentives, agency risk, the evolution of asset management, the rise of private markets, and the challenges investors face in identifying genuine skill.

Thanks for joining us, Peter.

I mean, I've spent the better part of over the last decade smashing U.S. investors over the head saying, and this is true of any country, you cannot put all your money in one country.

And there was a chart we retweeted on Twitter this week from Dimson Marstanton, but it was from Alliance Bernstein that showed It was like, hey, here's the returns of the U.S., amazing, but also here's five other countries that basically went to zero in the 20th century.

And it wasn't clear in 1899 that those wouldn't be one of the winners.

And had you been in those countries, like, oh, too bad, you lost all your money.

That's very valuable.

I remember the first copper discussion we had here in detail was with Paul Gate, who is now at Anglo American, but he used to be at Alliance Bernstein.

And I remember 10, 12 years ago, Robert Friedland emailing around Paul Gate, saying, copper is going to 10 000 back then right in the same way that he promotes jeff curry you know super copper bull x goldman sachs so before jeff curry it was kind of paul gate and uh in that video we can flash it up here um you know i started with that question with this old note you know and asked him what happened why were you so wrong for 10 years right saying that copper like like robert fried has been saying like you're gonna need to see use a telescope to see the copper price right and paul gate was saying the same thing and then he said a lot about what you just said i forget all the reasons that supply outperformed expectations right they just and that that's i mean i think if

you if you look at a lot of copper supply demand models you'll get a you'll get a chart like that where this is demand and this is supply um but actually it doesn't happen like that it happens more like that oops Right.

That's clear evidence of it is AI becoming increasingly integrated into business models.

AllianceBernstein's thematic innovation equities chief investment officer, Lei Xu, is back with us on Bloomberg Tech.

The common theme across all of those earnings we outlined, Lei, is that AI demand seems very strong.

Is that what you see?

Whoever use it to their advantage will be able to increase their profit pool, g- uh, accelerate their growth, and we're actually seeing early evidence of that.

So you see the portfolio naturally transition following along this type of transformation and along the curve of adoption.

AllianceBernstein's thematic innovation equities CIO, Lei Xu, back on the show, thank you very much indeed.

Coming up, Nvidia is going to acquire Hugging Face in a transaction valued at about $13 billion.

Meaning, you know, what did I do? I'll give you an example and I think you'll enjoy it.

I was asked to speak to Alliance Bernstein, one of the most elite wealth management companies in the world.

And I'm talking to their folks and, you know, really, really bright people as you are in terms of your financial management.

When my boys were younger, we had three boys, now young men.

They don't want to hear that stuff.

And your listeners don't either.

But my point is, every time I talk to people, I say to them, what's your deep joy? And so I'm talking to Alliance Bernstein, Adam Sansevier, managing partner was kind enough to ask me to chat with these folks.

And as you might guess, they started with, you know, maximizing returns, returns on investment, you know, maximizing shareholder value, you know, creating wealth.

But...

I just saw this from Alliance Bernstein.

And Bernstein, Alliance Bernstein, I think is a very credible shop.

I don't think they're hype.

They don't do a whole, they don't do the sell side.