Jon KoznickGuestAllison NeseyHostJavier Morillo-AliceaHostKraig UrquhartGuestUm, we're gonna start off, uh, with another week towards the election, another poll.
Uh, KSTP poll was released yesterday, um, with some, some movement along things, but, uh, we can s- Let's start with the governor's race that had Amy Klobuchar sitting at forty-eight percent and Lisa Damith at forty-one percent.
I, I mean, I, I think the, the trend lines from what, what I know, you know, of that poll and then polls that are not public and, uh, is this, is that Amy is in a com- has a comfortable lead.
Uh, the question is, given that the margin did, uh, did increase for Democrats all across these polls, do you think there was anything specific that, uh, you know, made people move more that direction, or are votes just being firmed up that were likely gonna lean that way anyways?
I, I think there's, there's a little of, like, reversion to the mean, which happens and, b- uh, like, as we get closer to elections, and people who are, um... who tend to vote Democrat but identify as independents, but like, you know, will come home.
Um, [clears throat] uh, I, I also, like, I- The KSTP poll in particular is just f- it's always weird to my mind.
Like, and, um, I, I, I think-- And I, I haven't looked into the crosstabs of this one.
Um, but in the, their prior one, their, their, the, the assumptions of the electorate I think were a little skewed, so it gave the, it, it helps cr- give those, make those races look tighter than they did.
Um, I mean, they, they, I think that w- Democratic enthusiasm, um, their expectation that the, was that the electorate would be, like, almost even Republicans and Democrats, and I just don't think that's what's gonna happen.
Yeah, I, I mean, I think the KSTP, they're, they're the most-- they're really good at putting their polls out there and getting, you know, attention around them.
But the, um, their pool of respondents, I, I have, I have also noticed and felt, I think, is skewed a bit to the right, which isn't exactly, uh, reflective of the broader voter base in Minnesota.
And I would also note, obviously, there's no factor around the enthusiasm gap and, uh, you know, turnout.
The ultimate poll is the election, but we can look at the primary, we can look at caucuses, and I just-- the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in Minnesota con-tinues to be, uh, pretty, pretty wide.

I, I would think, uh, looking at it a little more closely, uh, con- caution, one thing is that, you know, polls can push people to vote or away from voting, and we don't wanna black pill or, uh, dis- um, early disenfranchise and tell people to stay home.

The-- I'm encouraged at the fact that at the top of the ticket in a lot of the seats, uh, statewide, uh, the Republican candidates are staying close, and that's gonna bode well down for legislative races.

And it's gonna, uh, function on it, who we get our base to turn out on here i- in Minnesota, and if, uh, the low propensity voters that usually don't vote in non-presidential years come out, uh, I'm encouraged that Republicans will have a great opportunity to, um, have a majority, uh, in one of the branches of the legislature and then possibly, um, better outcomes, uh, in some of the statewide races that we're a little bit more promising on.
Speaking of those statewide races, the, um, key figures in the Senate w- has, uh, Lieutenant Governor Flanagan at forty-five percent, Michelle Tafoya at forty-two percent.
Um, we're gonna start off, uh, with another week towards the election, another poll.
Uh, KSTP poll was released yesterday, um, with some, some movement along things, but, uh, we can s- Let's start with the governor's race that had Amy Klobuchar sitting at forty-eight percent and Lisa Damith at forty-one percent.
I, I mean, I, I think the, the trend lines from what, what I know, you know, of that poll and then polls that are not public and, uh, is this, is that Amy is in a com- has a comfortable lead.
Uh, the question is, given that the margin did, uh, did increase for Democrats all across these polls, do you think there was anything specific that, uh, you know, made people move more that direction, or are votes just being firmed up that were likely gonna lean that way anyways?
I, I think there's, there's a little of, like, reversion to the mean, which happens and, b- uh, like, as we get closer to elections, and people who are, um... who tend to vote Democrat but identify as independents, but like, you know, will come home.
Um, [clears throat] uh, I, I also, like, I- The KSTP poll in particular is just f- it's always weird to my mind.
Like, and, um, I, I, I think-- And I, I haven't looked into the crosstabs of this one.
Um, but in the, their prior one, their, their, the, the assumptions of the electorate I think were a little skewed, so it gave the, it, it helps cr- give those, make those races look tighter than they did.
Um, I mean, they, they, I think that w- Democratic enthusiasm, um, their expectation that the, was that the electorate would be, like, almost even Republicans and Democrats, and I just don't think that's what's gonna happen.
Yeah, I, I mean, I think the KSTP, they're, they're the most-- they're really good at putting their polls out there and getting, you know, attention around them.
But the, um, their pool of respondents, I, I have, I have also noticed and felt, I think, is skewed a bit to the right, which isn't exactly, uh, reflective of the broader voter base in Minnesota.
And I would also note, obviously, there's no factor around the enthusiasm gap and, uh, you know, turnout.
The ultimate poll is the election, but we can look at the primary, we can look at caucuses, and I just-- the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in Minnesota con-tinues to be, uh, pretty, pretty wide.

I, I would think, uh, looking at it a little more closely, uh, con- caution, one thing is that, you know, polls can push people to vote or away from voting, and we don't wanna black pill or, uh, dis- um, early disenfranchise and tell people to stay home.

The-- I'm encouraged at the fact that at the top of the ticket in a lot of the seats, uh, statewide, uh, the Republican candidates are staying close, and that's gonna bode well down for legislative races.

And it's gonna, uh, function on it, who we get our base to turn out on here i- in Minnesota, and if, uh, the low propensity voters that usually don't vote in non-presidential years come out, uh, I'm encouraged that Republicans will have a great opportunity to, um, have a majority, uh, in one of the branches of the legislature and then possibly, um, better outcomes, uh, in some of the statewide races that we're a little bit more promising on.
Speaking of those statewide races, the, um, key figures in the Senate w- has, uh, Lieutenant Governor Flanagan at forty-five percent, Michelle Tafoya at forty-two percent.
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