June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market.
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Chapters:
(00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate
Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers.
(04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap
IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap.
(08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade
ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in.
(11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze
Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky.
(17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite
Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open.
(21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west
Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.
