Today in Ohio - Oct. 13, 2026 Polling is unreliable, but we're reporting this election season on what the betting markets show

Laura, as you know, we long ago decided to stop reporting political horse race polls because they're pretty much useless.

They always seem to get it wrong.

Election Day always reveals that.

What are we trying this year to report on about the betting markets having to do with politics? It's an experiment we're running through Election Day.

We are looking at how markets like Kalshi and those are showing these races, but, and it's showing that Ohioans are putting money on Democrats.

They're giving Amy Acton a roughly 70% chance of winning the governor's race right now, and Sherrod Brown about 60% chance of returning to the US Senate.

So these are the things like Polymarket, PredictIt.

These, PredictIt apparently was very accurate at forecasting the 2024 election results, where we know the polls that we had looked at, even though we didn't report horse race polls at the time, were wildly off.

So these markets let people put money on the candidate they believe will win a race.

Each contract costs roughly the same number of cents as the candidate's odds of victory.

So a 60% chance of winning would cost 60 cents apiece.

If they win, the contract pays a dollar.

If it loses, the contract is worthless.

So it's not that different when, from sports betting, which is why Ohio's tried to crack down on these, but this is not sports betting.

Well, we should point out, when it says a 70% chance of her winning, it doesn't mean that she's up 70-30.

It's just saying that she would win-

Right

... whether it's by a half point or 10 points, whereas polling tries to give you what, what the difference is between the candidates.

The reason we like this is because it has proven pretty accurate just on who wins.

That, we're, we're not getting into margins.

Uh, but, but the bettors [laughs] seem to have a better idea than the pollsters.

I mean, long ago polls became useless 'cause people-

Mm-hmm

... lie to the polls.

And, and-

Laura, as you know, we long ago decided to stop reporting political horse race polls because they're pretty much useless.

They always seem to get it wrong.

Election Day always reveals that.

What are we trying this year to report on about the betting markets having to do with politics? It's an experiment we're running through Election Day.

We are looking at how markets like Kalshi and those are showing these races, but, and it's showing that Ohioans are putting money on Democrats.

They're giving Amy Acton a roughly 70% chance of winning the governor's race right now, and Sherrod Brown about 60% chance of returning to the US Senate.

So these are the things like Polymarket, PredictIt.

These, PredictIt apparently was very accurate at forecasting the 2024 election results, where we know the polls that we had looked at, even though we didn't report horse race polls at the time, were wildly off.

So these markets let people put money on the candidate they believe will win a race.

Each contract costs roughly the same number of cents as the candidate's odds of victory.

So a 60% chance of winning would cost 60 cents apiece.

If they win, the contract pays a dollar.

If it loses, the contract is worthless.

So it's not that different when, from sports betting, which is why Ohio's tried to crack down on these, but this is not sports betting.

Well, we should point out, when it says a 70% chance of her winning, it doesn't mean that she's up 70-30.

It's just saying that she would win-

Right

... whether it's by a half point or 10 points, whereas polling tries to give you what, what the difference is between the candidates.

The reason we like this is because it has proven pretty accurate just on who wins.

That, we're, we're not getting into margins.

Uh, but, but the bettors [laughs] seem to have a better idea than the pollsters.

I mean, long ago polls became useless 'cause people-

Mm-hmm

... lie to the polls.

And, and-