How immigration debates are shaping midterm elections

**Welcome back to This Week on ICE.** **Counting down the clock:** We are officially less than a month away from the midterm elections that have loomed over our coverage all year — and survey after survey indicates that the Democrats are looking strong enough to seize control of both the House and Senate. If they clinch both chambers of Congress, it could trigger a tidal change in a number of hot-button issues, from inflation and the cost of living to the Iran War and federal corruption allegations. That’s not to mention the dozens of gubernatorial and state legislative races that could also contribute to limiting President Trump’s wide-ranging political agenda, should Republicans fold. **But do voters want Democrats to take action on immigration specifically? Or are they sending Washington a different message about their priorities? We dove into what polling can tell us — and where it falls short.**  **“ Donald Trump has the worst presidential approval rating going into a midterm election** since 1990**.” — Matt** While Trump is underwater with likely voters on almost every issue, he is the least underwater on immigration.  **“If I'm putting myself in the seat of a staffer, and I'm advising a congressperson on what their priorities should be, even though \[I may personally care] about immigration … I think that the danger here is that Democrats will read the numbers and make the politically astute, if cynical, choice to not push that hard on immigration and instead push much harder on the economy.” — Matt** Support This Week on ICE Podcast While immigration may rank among the issues with the lowest approval ratings among likely voters this election, growing public concern over government corruption may keep immigration at top of mind in specific contexts: A Gallup poll released last month reports that 89% of Americans view corruption as widespread ahead of midterm elections. “ There’s ample evidence of corruption within Trump’s immigration crackdown. In terms of whether we will see immigration become a Congressional priority post-midterms due to federal corruption allegations, I see that data point as a silver lining,” said Kelly. **\[Catch up: Track our coverage of ICE-related corruption here, here and here.]** So, we know the top issues for voters. But how are they feeling about heading to the polls in the first place? Trump and the U.S. Department of State have threatened to send ICE and FBI agents to polling sites, then subsequently denied that they would do so, in the name of “national security.” Despite the likelihood that deploying federal law enforcement to polling sites would be both a logistical nightmare and a deeply unconstitutional move, a tangible impact remains. “The narrative that the Trump administration is trying to construct is twofold. On the one hand, they’re saying, ‘Oh, we don’t want any noncitizen voting to happen at the polls.’ … \[And on the other hand], they’re alleging that voting mechanisms themselves could be fraudulent. They have seen relative success in this bucket:  The FBI took 2020 election ballots in Fulton County, Georgia, earlier this year alleging — but not proving — voter fraud. That’s worrisome.” — Kelly Support This Week on ICE Podcast Yet in the administration’s long-tail pursuit of federal control of elections, Trump has been stymied on some major fights: Congress didn't pass the Save America Act, which would have required voters to prove their citizenship, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the U.S. Postal Service from imposing new rules on mail-in ballots, and the Justice Department has lost over a dozen lawsuits seeking to force states to turn over sensitive voter data. On your way out: **Support our independent journalism.** *Individual pledges on Substack and Buy Me a Coffee from the TWOI community. Thank you to our supporters!* Thanks to you, the community behind our reporting and analysis has grown by leaps and bounds: We are #38 among Substack newsletters in Mexico, a “rising” news and politics newsletter globally, and a recipient of reporting grants from the Fund for Investigative Journalism and Gold House. We’re incredibly grateful for all of your attention and dedication to a beat that we believe has become the most consequential in U.S. politics today. But we could use your help to keep our engine going. **Pledge** a donation here on Substack or via our Buy Me a Coffee page **Forward** this newsletter to a friend **Email** us at *thisweekonice@gmail.com* with tips, comments, collaborations or grant/funding opportunities to deepen our original, dogged reporting That’s it for us this week. You’re welcome to keep sending us your questions, comments or tips to [thisweekonice@gmail.com](mailto:thisweekonice@gmail.com). Thanks for listening. Stay safe, look out for your neighbors, and we’ll see you next time. **— Kelly and Matt** Get full access to This Week On ICE Podcast at thisweekonice.substack.com/subscribe