The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

10-19-26 Why Bad Inflation May Be Good for Markets

Oct 19, 2026 · 54 min · 9 segments

Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest…

Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, Treasury yields, and the stock market. We examine what inflation trends reveal about consumer purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and the outlook for investors. Could today's inflation pressures eventually become tomorrow's economic weakness? 0:00 - INTRO 0:51 - Heavy Week of Earnings Driving markets 2:05 - Markets Sell off on Friday 3:52 - Markets Still Stuck in Same Consolidation Range (S&P vs RSP) 5:56 - Banks' Six Weeks' Sell Off = Opportunity? 8:18 - Misunderstanding Inflation - Good vs Bad 10:47 - What Inflation Looks at: Rate of CHANGE in Price 12:49 - The only thing the Fed can control is your spending 14:26 - The Fed is coming after you 15:03 - A history of inflation, supply, & demand (chart: price & quantity) 21:00 - Headline vs Core CPI (chart) 22:50 - Wages are the Problem (chart) 23:34 - Labor Share of Output is 52% (chart) 26:20 - When Do We Have Demand Destruction? (now) 28:12 - How to Position Portfolios for 2027? 29:26 - The AI Cap-ex Spend Narrative (Data Centers Are Not New) 34:16 - Record Capex, Fading Growth (chart) 39:35 - What if Capex Growth Stalls? (chart) 41:03 - Risks to Capex Spending (chart) 48:02 - AI is Real (just like the internet trade) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/azh9TZhC4PQ?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "The Hidden Costs of Pet Ownership" https://youtube.com/live/msrXdknaVjg?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bad Inflation Cures Itself. Good Inflation Doesn’t" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bad-inflation-cures-itself-good-inflation-doesnt/ "AI Capex And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-capex-and-earnings-what-happens-when-growth-slows/ "The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-kalecki-profit-equation-and-the-coming-reversion/ -------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Tech Stocks Take a Hit" https://youtu.be/Cz1Gn2J62Yc ------- REGISTER for our next in-person event, "Retirement Blueprint: 12 Steps to a Financially Savvy & Secure Retirement," Saturday, November 7: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #FederalReserve #StockMarket #TreasuryBonds #Investing

Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest…

Market Rotation and Earnings Outlook1:13 – 6:46

Lance RobertsHost

1:13

This week, a very busy week coming up.

Lance RobertsHost

1:15

Obviously, light on earnings this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:18

Sorry, light on economics this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:20

Heavy on earnings.

Lance RobertsHost

1:21

Lots of earnings out this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:23

ExxonMobil, a lot of major companies this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:26

Next week, we have even more.

Lance RobertsHost

1:29

So these next two weeks are going to be very, very heavy on earnings, and that's going to really be driving the markets overall.

Lance RobertsHost

1:36

And we're going to hear a lot from the mega caps, from the hyperscalers, et cetera, this week and next week as well.

Lance RobertsHost

1:43

So we'll have a much better view about CapEx, what expectations are.

Lance RobertsHost

1:46

So again, we're going to learn a lot this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:50

And a lot of these narratives that we've been talking about lately in terms of how much spending is going on, that type of thing and is it going to continue and what does that look like? We're going to get some, we'll get at least some insight into that over this week and that's certainly going to move markets in one direction or the other.

Lance RobertsHost

2:05

Now on Friday, markets sold off pretty well.

Lance RobertsHost

2:08

Now I'm going to jump straight into what you need to know before the bell because it's going to tie into everything else we're going to talk about this morning.

Lance RobertsHost

2:14

So on Friday, the market sold off.

Lance RobertsHost

2:18

So remember back on Thursday of last week, we talked about the market breaking the 50-day moving average.

Lance RobertsHost

2:24

And we said, well, that break of the 50-day moving average sets up a test of the 100-day moving average, which is kind of what happened on Friday.

Lance RobertsHost

2:31

We didn't specifically test the 100-day, but we got down pretty close to it.

Lance RobertsHost

2:36

on Friday, at least intraday, and then ticked up a little bit right at the end of the day.

Lance RobertsHost

2:40

But the selling was heavy across the technology sector.

Lance RobertsHost

2:44

Again, we saw this rotation in the markets.

Lance RobertsHost

2:47

Ten days ago, we rebalanced our portfolios.

Lance RobertsHost

2:49

We sold our growth stocks, trimmed those back.

Lance RobertsHost

2:51

We didn't sell them.

Lance RobertsHost

2:51

We trimmed those back to target weights and added to the value sector of the market.

Market Rotation and Earnings Outlook1:13 – 6:46

Lance RobertsHost

1:13

This week, a very busy week coming up.

Lance RobertsHost

1:15

Obviously, light on earnings this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:18

Sorry, light on economics this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:20

Heavy on earnings.

Lance RobertsHost

1:21

Lots of earnings out this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:23

ExxonMobil, a lot of major companies this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:26

Next week, we have even more.

Lance RobertsHost

1:29

So these next two weeks are going to be very, very heavy on earnings, and that's going to really be driving the markets overall.

Lance RobertsHost

1:36

And we're going to hear a lot from the mega caps, from the hyperscalers, et cetera, this week and next week as well.

Lance RobertsHost

1:43

So we'll have a much better view about CapEx, what expectations are.

Lance RobertsHost

1:46

So again, we're going to learn a lot this week.

Lance RobertsHost

1:50

And a lot of these narratives that we've been talking about lately in terms of how much spending is going on, that type of thing and is it going to continue and what does that look like? We're going to get some, we'll get at least some insight into that over this week and that's certainly going to move markets in one direction or the other.

Lance RobertsHost

2:05

Now on Friday, markets sold off pretty well.

Lance RobertsHost

2:08

Now I'm going to jump straight into what you need to know before the bell because it's going to tie into everything else we're going to talk about this morning.

Lance RobertsHost

2:14

So on Friday, the market sold off.

Lance RobertsHost

2:18

So remember back on Thursday of last week, we talked about the market breaking the 50-day moving average.

Lance RobertsHost

2:24

And we said, well, that break of the 50-day moving average sets up a test of the 100-day moving average, which is kind of what happened on Friday.

Lance RobertsHost

2:31

We didn't specifically test the 100-day, but we got down pretty close to it.

Lance RobertsHost

2:36

on Friday, at least intraday, and then ticked up a little bit right at the end of the day.

Lance RobertsHost

2:40

But the selling was heavy across the technology sector.

Lance RobertsHost

2:44

Again, we saw this rotation in the markets.

Lance RobertsHost

2:47

Ten days ago, we rebalanced our portfolios.

Lance RobertsHost

2:49

We sold our growth stocks, trimmed those back.

Lance RobertsHost

2:51

We didn't sell them.

Lance RobertsHost

2:51

We trimmed those back to target weights and added to the value sector of the market.