The Polling Wars — Texas at 1 Point, Georgia's Jackson Wave & the CBS Trick

Matt Towery and John Hall go inside "the polling wars" — the tricks that make the 2026 midterm polls look worse for Republicans than they are. Matt runs the battlegrounds: Texas now a one-point race, Michigan within two, Michele Tafoya one point back in Minnesota, Ohio tightening. John calls a Rick Jackson wave in Georgia that carries Mike Collins to a win. Matt explains the "recall number" weighting trick, why CBS's approve/disapprove question hides the real number, and why seniors are telling his polls they're excited to vote at 75 to 80 percent. They also play the South Carolina ad "We Can't Trust Annie Andrews," and get into Sophie Cunningham and the WNBA, the party insiders and the fundraising texts, the CIA gold-bars case, John's "New Realm" — Russia, China and radical Islam — Mark Ruffalo and Hollywood politics, lab leaks and Bill Gates, Newt Gingrich's socialism message, early voting, and Georgia at Alabama. Plus new books from both hosts: Matt's The Honoring of Ignorance: The Seven Mirages Destroying America, and John's Ghost and Death on Lake Lanier, out Oct. 30 on Amazon. 🏌️ The Leaderboard — Leaders & Laggards in politics, every week. mattsleaderboard.com · @LeaderMatt\_John TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 – Welcome: John at Avalon in Alpharetta 1:01 – Matt's new book and "the polling wars" 2:56 – Hannity and Gingrich endorse the book; red-state and blue-state compacts 5:01 – The races: Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina 6:36 – Georgia: the Rick Jackson wave and John's Collins prediction 8:30 – Alaska: Sullivan and ranked-choice voting 9:43 – South Carolina: Darline Graham vs. Annie Andrews 11:23 – The ad: "We Can't Trust Annie Andrews" 12:03 – Enthusiasm and the "recall number" weighting trick 13:24 – CBS's approve/disapprove trick 13:56 – Seniors excited to vote at 75–80% 14:55 – Sophie Cunningham and the WNBA 16:23 – The party insiders and the fundraising texts 17:41 – A Florida bellwether district: "back off" 19:11 – The CIA gold bars 20:08 – John's "New Realm": Russia, China and radical Islam 22:28 – Mark Ruffalo, De Niro and Hollywood politics 24:34 – John's next book, The Georgia Strain, and lab leaks 27:30 – Bill Gates 28:31 – John's new book: Ghost and Death on Lake Lanier 30:51 – Early voting, Florida mail ballots and Newt's socialism message 32:26 – The economy headlines the campaign isn't using 33:30 – The mirage machine: "We're not a democracy" 35:27 – Matt on Sean's podcast: "I'm retiring" 37:35 – New ties for Hannity 38:10 – Georgia at Alabama, the Gators at Missouri 39:49 – Georgia, the bellwether state #TheLeaderboard #MattTowery #JohnHall #2026Midterms #Polling #Georgia