Interview 2024 - Trita Parsi on Why the Iran War Isn't Over Yet

And going back to that article I mentioned, Why Iran Believes Israel Will Attack Again Before October, which starts by noting that, "Will Israel restart the war with Iran before the October elections? This is the consensus view emerging within Iran's i- internal national security debate over the past week." And obviously, this article came out, uh, about a week ago.

Um, first of all, tell us about the details of this and then update us as to what the latest thinking on this is.

Yeah.

So this is an article that I put up on my Substack, uh, tritaarsi.substack.com.

Welcome anyone to follow it there.

And, uh, it is based on conversations I've had with folks o- on all sides o- of this issue.

And the Iranians were at least, I don't know if it's changed in the last couple of days, but they were really coming to a conclusion that the Israelis are very likely, if not, um, a, a certainty, that they will attack again before October, and in their view, even sooner than that.

The two things that really drive them towards this conclusion is, first of all, the Israeli-Lebanese MOU, because that one does not require Israel to leave, uh, Lebanese territory.

Uh, it, uh, it, it requires it to happen if Hezbollah is disarmed, which is not gonna happen.

And if it happens, it means that there will be a civil war in, uh, Lebanon.

And this means that the Israelis will remain in places in Lebanon right now that are of crucial importance to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah held those positions back in February, and because it held those positions, it actually played a very significant role in the war in a manner that has not been reported because of Israel's military censorship.

They were able to strike at Israel from a short distance, and this is part of the reason why the Iranians did not strike at Israel as much as they could have, which raised eyebrows at the time.

People were asking themselves why they're hitting the UAE so hard and not the Israelis.

But part of the reason for that was because Hezbollah was very active, but none of that was really reported because of Israel's military censorship.

Now, Hezbollah cannot play that role any longer because Israel has taken over those positions, and thanks to the Israeli-Lebanese agreement, it will continue to hold those positions.

And this has then fueled suspicions on the Iranian side that this is done specifically because the Israelis are planning to strike at Iran again, but now from a more advantageous position, at least when you're looking at this variable, uh, and that it will happen soon, but no later than October, because in October is, of course, the Israeli elections.

And for Netanyahu, this is very crucial.

He has fared very badly as of late because the MOU was a huge setback for him and for Israel.

The Israelis are criticizing him from all directions, saying that he pushed for a war that ended up being a failure.

And particularly if the United States now essentially accepts Lebanon's, uh, or Hezbollah's position within Lebanon, that would be a huge setback for the Israelis.

So he has all of the incentives To try to reverse this.

And it's not just about the electoral issue.

It's the fact that if he loses his, uh, position as prime minister, he also loses his immunity, and that means that the corruption charges against him will go forward, and he may very well end up in jail.

So he has personal, strategic, political reasons to do this, and this is what has convinced the Iranians that, uh, Israel is very likely to attack again.