Macro Talk: 10.9.2026

All right, let's get into it.

So quick rundown.

You know, I think...

I think we should just replace all the price action with just what's happening with oil markets and then just go off there.

But I think one thing that I noted a little bit is kind of...

Consistent with a reduction in oil volatility or a less torrid and consistent bid of the oil complex upwards, you have started to see a little bit more idiosyncrasy in general market price action across macro markets.

But then again... you still at the core of it have um mlg markets very very much at the center so scanning across markets you know you had commodities broadly up over the last week you had equities kind of behind them and fixed income uh finally you know putting in a good positive week uh i think it's fairly important to note that you know on a risk match basis tips were are performing uh nominals which just basically points to the ongoing inflationary pressures that are being placed across markets.

In terms of stats or general announcements, I think the only very meaningful thing was the minutes that came out.

I typically avoid reading, well, I don't avoid reading the minutes, but I avoid giving my interpretations of the minutes to people because I'm not particularly good at that type of thing.

So Bob, I will defer to you.

What did you see generally and what do you think of the minutes?

Well, I think my general thought was, I mean, first of all, big picture, you know, a little bit of inflationary pressure in the market this week, but moves were not that large, all things considered.

I thought the dynamics that we saw in the market in response to the open AI, I don't know what you call it, downgrade, complicated conversation about exactly whether that was an actual downgrade or just people misunderstood what the previous commentary was, um, or if it was purposely misleading, all those things could be true, but certainly the markets responded in a way that suggested essentially a negative growth shock, a small negative growth surprise.

Maybe I should say in response to that, I thought it was very interesting because you did see a pretty good bond rally in response to that.

And I think part of the question here, I, I think if you sort of tune out all the you sort of look at the noise, there's basically two camps here around people who are talking about the U.S. bond market in particular.

There's a camp that basically says, look, this basically looks like growth surprise to the upside.

You know, there's an oil shock.

We were worried about growth.

It surprised to the upside.

Bonds sold off as a result.

Nominal growth surprised the upside.

And therefore, you know, the bond market is fine.

It's like normal, largely moving in line with expectations.

Expectations of the macro linkages you'd expect.

And then there's another camp, which is a bunch of doomers, you know, who certainly I'm quite personally familiar with a lot of those doomers.

All right, let's get into it.

So quick rundown.

You know, I think...

I think we should just replace all the price action with just what's happening with oil markets and then just go off there.

But I think one thing that I noted a little bit is kind of...

Consistent with a reduction in oil volatility or a less torrid and consistent bid of the oil complex upwards, you have started to see a little bit more idiosyncrasy in general market price action across macro markets.

But then again... you still at the core of it have um mlg markets very very much at the center so scanning across markets you know you had commodities broadly up over the last week you had equities kind of behind them and fixed income uh finally you know putting in a good positive week uh i think it's fairly important to note that you know on a risk match basis tips were are performing uh nominals which just basically points to the ongoing inflationary pressures that are being placed across markets.

In terms of stats or general announcements, I think the only very meaningful thing was the minutes that came out.

I typically avoid reading, well, I don't avoid reading the minutes, but I avoid giving my interpretations of the minutes to people because I'm not particularly good at that type of thing.

So Bob, I will defer to you.

What did you see generally and what do you think of the minutes?

Well, I think my general thought was, I mean, first of all, big picture, you know, a little bit of inflationary pressure in the market this week, but moves were not that large, all things considered.

I thought the dynamics that we saw in the market in response to the open AI, I don't know what you call it, downgrade, complicated conversation about exactly whether that was an actual downgrade or just people misunderstood what the previous commentary was, um, or if it was purposely misleading, all those things could be true, but certainly the markets responded in a way that suggested essentially a negative growth shock, a small negative growth surprise.

Maybe I should say in response to that, I thought it was very interesting because you did see a pretty good bond rally in response to that.

And I think part of the question here, I, I think if you sort of tune out all the you sort of look at the noise, there's basically two camps here around people who are talking about the U.S. bond market in particular.

There's a camp that basically says, look, this basically looks like growth surprise to the upside.

You know, there's an oil shock.

We were worried about growth.

It surprised to the upside.

Bonds sold off as a result.

Nominal growth surprised the upside.

And therefore, you know, the bond market is fine.

It's like normal, largely moving in line with expectations.

Expectations of the macro linkages you'd expect.

And then there's another camp, which is a bunch of doomers, you know, who certainly I'm quite personally familiar with a lot of those doomers.