How Oklahoma CAN win | Red River Shoutout | Sooner Smiths Live #56

Sooner Smiths Live #56 is a Red River preview. Chad Smith and Tierani Smith walk through the injury report, Texas’s third-down cliffs, OU’s scoring drought in the series, and the narrow path to an upset. Both lean Texas, but neither treats a close loss or a fluky OU win as impossible. **Show:** How Oklahoma CAN win | Red River Shoutout | Sooner Smiths Live #56 **Hosts:** Tierani Smith and Chad Smith (OklahomaVOCFB) **Context:** Makeup live (Chad had a motion to dismiss Monday). Presented by FanDuel. Six-month-old in the room. Xeno Zone picks at the end. ### Injury report (just dropped, ~7:10 p.m.) - **Out:** Jacoby Johnson (big loss), Xavier Robinson, Trell Harris, Taylor Heim. Harris has an internal injury and could miss into November, possibly a medical redshirt. Heim is out for the year. Robinson is a tough out even if production hasn’t matched last year. - **Doubtful:** Trené Washington, Michael Fasusi. Fasusi not returning is the bigger hit. Hosts wanted the line to slide back to natural spots. Washington played vs. Georgia; unclear what happened in practice. - **Questionable:** Eddie Pierre-Louis (practice injury). - **Probable:** Jermichael Carter, Cole Sullivan, Michael Bogunowski, Owen Heinecke, Jack Van Dorselaer. Starting safety back, plus linebacker depth. Van Dorselaer has to play big with Washington out. Fasusi being doubtful is why both hosts say this is the least excited they’ve been for Red River in a while (Chad’s low was the year Dylan couldn’t play). ### Texas third-down and down-and-distance notes Texas has not shown a broad defensive weakness. They get less dominant in specific spots. - Third-and-1 to 3 and third-and-4 to 6: 7-of-12 in both buckets (~58%). - Third-and-7+: 5-of-31 (16%). - Texas’s own offense: 16-of-17 on third-and-1 to 3 (94–96%), 7-of-16 on third-and-4 to 6, 6-of-25 on third-and-7+ (~24%). - On 57 snaps of second-and-7 or longer, Texas averaged about 7.5 yards per play; when they passed those snaps, about 9.6. Roughly 63% of those snaps still gained at least 5 yards. A short first-down run does not end the series. OU’s defense held Georgia to about 3-of-15 on third down and Michigan to two conversions. Hosts still note one busted drive can decide it, and OU has already given the ball away too often. Tennessee is the blueprint: 12 meaningful possessions, seven gained 5 yards or fewer, Texas punted seven times, 3-of-12 on third down, 262 yards, six sacks. Texas’s line is not world-beating either. Ted took heat for calling them a very beatable No. 1. Hosts agree the Ohio State win is the best in the country, but the offense has to pick up to win a title. ### How Texas scores, and why that hurts OU - Vs. UTSA: 83 plays, ~400 yards, nearly 30 points, longest rush 20, longest completion 24. - Combined with Ohio State: 54 points across those two games with no offensive gain longer than 24 yards. - Texas wins a possession game, 4–8 yards at a time. OU is not good at that. - Texas State still rushed for 161 and converted 8-of-14 third downs in a blowout loss. Three drives totaled 215 yards and reached the Texas 17 or deeper; they produced 7 points and missed two field goals. ### OU’s Red River offensive drought (SoonerStats credit) - 1,095 days since an OU touchdown vs. Texas. - 136 scrimmage plays without a touchdown (Texas’s longest drought is 104). - 115 plays / 20 drives without a snap inside the Texas 20 (Texas’s longest was 85 plays / 16 drives). - 101 dropbacks without a 30+ completion. Longest completion is 28 yards, Q2 of 2023. - 72 rush attempts without a 15+ run. Longest OU run since is 11 yards, Q4 of 2023 (Gabriel). 2024 context: receivers were out. Hosts still call the product boring. They almost left the New Mexico game early. Defense is the only exciting unit. Fans are cheering the offense not to mess up, not to score. That mindset leaks onto the field. ### Run game and the line Texas has allowed about 397 rushing yards on 140 carries (2.84 YPC) against teams that can run, including Ohio State and a Tennessee line that was supposed to be elite. OU is at 2.9 YPC. Vs. New Mexico: 20 carries, 46 yards (2.3), and 60% of runs gained 3 or fewer. Hosts push back on “just establish the run.” They want an average offense, not a great one. Rodney Anderson and Caleb Kelly blame injuries and bad luck and oppose firing Bill Bedenbaugh. Hosts ask why starter-level OL injuries hit OU every year, and cite Gabe on bad technique that never improves. Chat theories: too many blocking schemes, losing the strength battle even to New Mexico. Standards are low enough that a functional line might have kept Michigan and Georgia competitive. ### Turnover and scoring math - Brent Venables is 19-20 when the defense doesn’t score, and about 24-2 when OU wins the turnover battle. - OU third downs: 13-of-26 (50%) in the two wins, 5-of-27 in the losses (Michigan and Georgia). - Texas opponents convert ~58% on third-and-6 or shorter and ~16% on third-and-7+. - Vs. New Mexico, OU was 7-of-15 on third down, but the average distance was about 7.3–7.5 yards, and they converted only 2 of the attempts that needed 7+. - About 87% of Texas offensive touchdowns have come from outside the red zone. Only about 40% of OU’s have come in the red zone. - OU has at least one 75-yard TD drive in all four games, then looks like it has never played football. - Last eight Red Rivers: winners 56-of-122 on third down (45.9%), losers 37-of-112 (33%). Winner was better on third down in 6 of 8. - OU pass defense: no opponent has reached 180 passing yards, one passing TD in four games, opponents completing 51.9%. Historical reminder: 2002 OU was 2-2, beat Texas 45-40, then won out to finish 11-2. Another 1-2 OU team beat Texas 53-45 in 4OT and finished 9-2, winning seven straight after. A win here can flip a season. Spread is Texas -7.5. Hosts think that is low for No. 1 vs. an unranked team, and that Vegas is giving the OU defense real credit. ### Arch Manning and Mateer Arch is better than last year but not a No. 1 overall pick in a weak QB class. He still has throws that are hard to explain, but he does not have Mateer’s catastrophic turnovers. Passing and interception numbers are otherwise similar. Texas fans and one host’s Texas-fan boss call the offense the biggest disappointment in the sport. One good quarter vs. good teams (Ohio State) has been enough to win. Texas has been beaten on the back end by a true WR1: Jeremiah Smith 8-164-1 (60% of Ohio State’s passing yards); Tennessee’s Mike Matthews 4-72-1 (~50% of Tennessee’s passing production). Isaiah Sategna (and Rocky Beers) have to test the weak link. Mateer has to stop playing scared. Hosts expect a turnover and say he should play free anyway. Venables called him “our starting quarterback,” which Tierani reads as starter, not necessarily finisher. If he puts them in a hole in the first half, he should sit. Colin Simmons is the problem on the edge. Texas plays a lot of bear with linebackers on the line. Someone has to hit them early. Hosts also want a tone-setting personal foul. ### Injury-report skepticism Some absences (Harris, Heim) are real game injuries. Others (Cole Sullivan in practice, Bogunowski in a game, Kip Lewis on punt/kickoff) feed the “who cursed us” feeling. No injury report after Georgia because of the bye, so some of this may have been sitting. Hosts wonder if OU over-reports compared with other teams. They say they toned down practice contact this year and still can’t stay healthy. ### Keys to win (Cignetti frame) 1. No turnovers, especially no short-field gifts. 2. No special-teams disasters. Punts have to flip the field. Tate Sandell has missed two from bad spots. Hosts worry they broke his confidence. Last year’s punt return still stings. 3. Force Arch into third-and-long and turn him over, or get a defensive score, so the offense gets short fields. 4. No busted explosives. Texas can drive. They cannot be given a free one. 5. One undisciplined penalty is the bank. Texas helps with penalties (Simmons ejection). 6. Win first and second down so third downs stay at 6 or shorter. Do not try to prove a 200-yard rushing day. Realistic path they sketch: defensive score, another turnover that becomes a Sandell field goal, one offensive touchdown. That is 17. Without that, they do not see two offensive touchdowns against this defense. ### Picks - **Chad:** Texas 20-13. Hates picking Texas. Cannot see OU scoring more than two touchdowns against what may be the best defense they’ve faced, Georgia included. - **Tierani:** Heart OU 17-14, with 10 of those points from the defense. Head Texas 24-17, with 10 of Texas’s points off turnovers. - **Xeno:** Stays loyal and picks Oklahoma (he had picked Georgia previously). Other board: Indiana over Nebraska, Oregon over UCLA, Georgia over Alabama, and a UCF–Oklahoma State pick. - Chat leans Texas in the low-to-mid 20s. One Oklahoma win call is 27-9. Record mention: Xeno 16-9. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.