The Right Side of History with Tyler Cowen | GoodFellows | Hoover Institution

I want to talk about this idea of Trumpism meets globalism and who is triumphing.

And let me read two passages that you and Neil have written recently.

Let me start with you, Tyler.

Quote, The big story from Davos, I'm referring to the World Economic Forum last week that Neil attended, the big story from Davos is that globalization is in swift retreat.

And that may well be that the insiders are saying to each other in speeches and exclusive private parties from the outside world, outside the peaks of Switzerland, though what I'm seeing is that globalization, all things considered, is likely accelerating.

To which we have Sir Neil Ferguson writing in the pages of the Free Press, quote, I've never seen, he's referring to Donald Trump here, I've never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important.

So, Tyler, tell me, who's winning this conversation, the globalist or Donald Trump?

I think of Donald Trump as being fairly globalist.

he built a global business empire with hotels and real estate he's deeply concerned with the rest of the world whether we like all of his concerns or not he keeps on lecturing europe he's obsessed with the u s and china in some strange way ruling the rest of the world together He just likes doing things, and the more frustrating it is for him to be stymied at home, the more he's looking to abroad, including Venezuela and possibly Iran on the horizon.

So I think both Neil and I are correct, and they're not such different points of view.

I entirely agree our positions are perfectly compatible with one another, though the globalists who convene each year at Davos regard Trump as their sworn enemy.

Part of the point of Davos now is to get together and hate on Trump.

And like somebody who enjoys playing the pantomime villain, Trump comes knowing that they're itching to boo and hiss, and he rather loves that.

What they hate about him is, I suppose, tariffs, is his contempt for institutions like the Paris Climate Accord.

They can't bear the fact that Trump wants to tear up what they call the liberal international order, a phrase that gets ritually encountered at such events.

But as Tyler says, Trumpism, including the tariffs, including the withdrawal of the United States from international agreements, is global, not isolationist.

Trumpism is just a different view of world order.

But what's interesting to me is that if one looks at the economics of the world today, the tariffs, though they're much higher than most people foresaw ahead of Trump's reelection, haven't ended globalization.

They've just caused a slight reconfiguration of the international trading networks.

And that's happened with amazing speed.

Some of the goods that used to go to the United States via, say, Vietnam, now have to make a couple of stops before they end up in the United States.

There's wonderful work that you probably know, Tyler, by Hyun Song Shin of the Bank for International Settlements on the way the world economy really works, a network of interlocking balance sheets and supply chains.

And what I'm fascinated by is how little that network is really disrupted even by the very high tariffs that Trump imposed last year and threatens to impose again.

So I think it's fascinating to see how the global economy powers ahead, regardless of what Trump does.

To me, the puzzling thing is why European leaders and now the leader of Canada take the bait every time.

I want to talk about this idea of Trumpism meets globalism and who is triumphing.

And let me read two passages that you and Neil have written recently.

Let me start with you, Tyler.

Quote, The big story from Davos, I'm referring to the World Economic Forum last week that Neil attended, the big story from Davos is that globalization is in swift retreat.

And that may well be that the insiders are saying to each other in speeches and exclusive private parties from the outside world, outside the peaks of Switzerland, though what I'm seeing is that globalization, all things considered, is likely accelerating.

To which we have Sir Neil Ferguson writing in the pages of the Free Press, quote, I've never seen, he's referring to Donald Trump here, I've never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important.

So, Tyler, tell me, who's winning this conversation, the globalist or Donald Trump?

I think of Donald Trump as being fairly globalist.

he built a global business empire with hotels and real estate he's deeply concerned with the rest of the world whether we like all of his concerns or not he keeps on lecturing europe he's obsessed with the u s and china in some strange way ruling the rest of the world together He just likes doing things, and the more frustrating it is for him to be stymied at home, the more he's looking to abroad, including Venezuela and possibly Iran on the horizon.

So I think both Neil and I are correct, and they're not such different points of view.

I entirely agree our positions are perfectly compatible with one another, though the globalists who convene each year at Davos regard Trump as their sworn enemy.

Part of the point of Davos now is to get together and hate on Trump.

And like somebody who enjoys playing the pantomime villain, Trump comes knowing that they're itching to boo and hiss, and he rather loves that.

What they hate about him is, I suppose, tariffs, is his contempt for institutions like the Paris Climate Accord.

They can't bear the fact that Trump wants to tear up what they call the liberal international order, a phrase that gets ritually encountered at such events.

But as Tyler says, Trumpism, including the tariffs, including the withdrawal of the United States from international agreements, is global, not isolationist.

Trumpism is just a different view of world order.

But what's interesting to me is that if one looks at the economics of the world today, the tariffs, though they're much higher than most people foresaw ahead of Trump's reelection, haven't ended globalization.

They've just caused a slight reconfiguration of the international trading networks.

And that's happened with amazing speed.

Some of the goods that used to go to the United States via, say, Vietnam, now have to make a couple of stops before they end up in the United States.

There's wonderful work that you probably know, Tyler, by Hyun Song Shin of the Bank for International Settlements on the way the world economy really works, a network of interlocking balance sheets and supply chains.

And what I'm fascinated by is how little that network is really disrupted even by the very high tariffs that Trump imposed last year and threatens to impose again.

So I think it's fascinating to see how the global economy powers ahead, regardless of what Trump does.

To me, the puzzling thing is why European leaders and now the leader of Canada take the bait every time.